IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp9109.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Changing Returns to Crime: Do Criminals Respond to Prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Draca, Mirko

    (London School of Economics)

  • Koutmeridis, Theodore

    (University of Glasgow)

  • Machin, Stephen

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

In economic models of crime individuals respond to changes in the potential value of criminal opportunities. We analyse this issue by estimating crime-price elasticities from detailed data on criminal incidents in London between 2002 and 2012. The unique data feature we exploit is a detailed classification of what goods were stolen in reported theft, robbery and burglary incidents. We first consider a panel of consumer goods covering the majority of market goods stolen in the crime incidents and find evidence of significant positive price elasticities. We then study a particular group of crimes that have risen sharply recently as world prices for them have risen, namely commodity related goods (jewellery, fuel and metal crimes), finding sizable elasticities when we instrument local UK prices by exogenous shifts in global commodity prices. Finally, we show that changes in the prices of loot from crime have played a role in explaining recent crime trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Draca, Mirko & Koutmeridis, Theodore & Machin, Stephen, 2015. "The Changing Returns to Crime: Do Criminals Respond to Prices?," IZA Discussion Papers 9109, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp9109.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 163-190, Winter.
    2. Lovenheim, Michael F., 2008. "How Far to the Border?: The Extent and Impact of Cross-Border Casual Cigarette Smuggling," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 61(1), pages 7-33, March.
    3. Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz & Julien Pouget, 2009. "Youth Unemployment and Crime in France," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(5), pages 909-938, September.
    4. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Steven D. Levitt & Sudhir Alladi Venkatesh, 2000. "An Economic Analysis of a Drug-Selling Gang's Finances," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 755-789.
    6. Ian Ayres & Steven D. Levitt, 1998. "Measuring Positive Externalities from Unobservable Victim Precaution: An Empirical Analysis of Lojack," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 43-77.
    7. Eric D. Gould & Bruce A. Weinberg & David B. Mustard, 2002. "Crime Rates And Local Labor Market Opportunities In The United States: 1979-1997," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 45-61, February.
    8. Jan C. Ours & Ben Vollaard, 2016. "The Engine Immobiliser: A Non‐starter for Car Thieves," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(593), pages 1264-1291, June.
    9. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin, 2015. "Crime and Economic Incentives," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 389-408, August.
    10. Grogger, Jeff, 1998. "Market Wages and Youth Crime," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 756-791, October.
    11. Brian Bell & Anna Bindler & Stephen Machin, 2018. "Crime Scars: Recessions and the Making of Career Criminals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 392-404, July.
    12. Gruber, Jonathan & Sen, Anindya & Stabile, Mark, 2003. "Estimating price elasticities when there is smuggling: the sensitivity of smoking to price in Canada," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 821-842, September.
    13. Freeman, Richard B., 1999. "The economics of crime," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 52, pages 3529-3571, Elsevier.
    14. Philip Abbott, 2009. "Development Dimensions of High Food Prices," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
    15. Kessler, Daniel P & Levitt, Steven D, 1999. "Using Sentence Enhancements to Distinguish between Deterrence and Incapacitation," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 343-363, April.
    16. Ben Vollaard & Jan C. van Ours, 2011. "Does Regulation of Built‐in Security Reduce Crime? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 485-504, May.
    17. William Harbaugh & Naci Mocan & Michael Visser, 2013. "Theft and Deterrence," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 389-407, December.
    18. repec:bla:reviec:v:8:y:2000:i:4:p:647-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Brian Bell & Laura Jaitman & Stephen Machin, 2014. "Crime Deterrence: Evidence From the London 2011 Riots," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 480-506, May.
    20. Chen, Mei-Hsiu, 2010. "Understanding world metals prices--Returns, volatility and diversification," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 127-140, September.
    21. Prasad Bidarkota & Mario J. Crucini, 2000. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 647-666, November.
    22. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    23. Viscusi, W Kip, 1986. "The Risks and Rewards of Criminal Activity: A Comprehensive Test of Criminal Deterrence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages 317-340, July.
    24. Reilly, Barry & Witt, Robert, 2008. "Domestic burglaries and the real price of audio-visual goods: Some time series evidence for Britain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 96-100, July.
    25. Isaac Ehrlich, 1996. "Crime, Punishment, and the Market for Offenses," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 43-67, Winter.
    26. Bruce L. Benson & Paul R. Zimmerman (ed.), 2010. "Handbook on the Economics of Crime," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13180.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tom Kirchmaier & Stephen Machin & Matteo Sandi & Robert Witt, 2020. "Prices, Policing and Policy: The Dynamics of Crime Booms and Busts," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1040-1077.
    2. Yu Aoki & Theodore Koutmeridis, 2019. "Shaking Criminal Incentives," Working Papers 2019-13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Natalya Orlovska & Julia Stepanova, 2020. "Confiscation of proceeds and property related to crimes: international standards and the ECHR practice," Juridical Tribune - Review of Comparative and International Law, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 493-511, December.
    4. Fetzer, Thiemo, 2023. "Did the policy response to the energy crisis cause crime? Evidence from England," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1459, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Galiani, Sebastian & Jaitman, Laura & Weinschelbaum, Federico, 2020. "Crime and durable goods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 146-163.
    6. Mechoulan, Stéphane, 2020. "Civil unrest, emergency powers, and spillover effects: A mixed methods analysis of the 2005 French riots," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 305-326.
    7. Randi Hjalmarsson & Stephen Machin & Paolo Pinotti, 2024. "Crime and the labor market," CEP Discussion Papers dp2044, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. R Pickering & K Y Lim, 2024. "Does crime type matter in understanding the nexus between universal credit and crime? Evidence from England and Wales," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 29(1), pages 93-131, March.
    9. Aoki, Yu & Koutmeridis, Theodore, 2019. "Shaking Criminal Incentives," IZA Discussion Papers 12781, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Enrico Cantoni & Vincent Pons, 2021. "Strict Id Laws Don’t Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2615-2660.
    11. Corrado Giulietti & Brendon McConnell, 2020. "Kicking You When You're Already Down: The Multipronged Impact of Austerity on Crime," Papers 2012.08133, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    12. Kerri Agnew, 2020. "Crime highways: The effect of motorway expansion on burglary rates," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(5), pages 995-1024, November.
    13. Anna Bussu & Domenica Giovanna Dettori & Maria Gabriela Ladu & Manuela Pulina, 2024. "Illegal drugs and socio-economic changes in a new pivotal region: a court judgements perspective," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Blesse, Sebastian & Diegmann, André, 2019. "Police reorganization and crime: Evidence from police station closures," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-044, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2019.
    15. Carl Hase & Johannes Kasinger, 2024. "The Pass-through of Retail Crime," Papers 2407.07201, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    16. Campaniello, Nadia & Gavrilova, Evelina, 2018. "Uncovering the gender participation gap in crime," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 289-304.
    17. Tomas Brabenec & Josef Montag, 2016. "Criminals and the Price System: Evidence from Czech Metal Thieves," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp558, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    18. Laura Jaitman, 2019. "Frontiers in the economics of crime: lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 28(1), pages 1-36, December.
    19. Qi Ge & Ignacio Sarmiento Barbieri & Rodrigo Schneider, 2021. "Sporting Events, Emotional Cues, And Crime: Spatial And Temporal Evidence From Brazilian Soccer Games," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 375-395, January.
    20. Tannenbaum, Daniel I., 2020. "Does the disclosure of gun ownership affect crime? Evidence from New York," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    21. Pengfei Jia & King Yoong Lim & Ali Raza, 2020. "Crime, different taxation, police spending and embodied human capital," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 664-698, September.
    22. Diego De la Fuente, 2024. "Remittance Income and Crime in Mexico," Working Paper Series 1024, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    23. Satadru Das & Naci Mocan, 2020. "Analyzing The Impact Of The World'S Largest Public Works Project On Crime," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1167-1182, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aoki, Yu & Koutmeridis, Theodore, 2019. "Shaking Criminal Incentives," IZA Discussion Papers 12781, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Yu Aoki & Theodore Koutmeridis, 2019. "Shaking Criminal Incentives," Working Papers 2019-13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Galiani, Sebastian & Jaitman, Laura & Weinschelbaum, Federico, 2020. "Crime and durable goods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 146-163.
    4. O’Flaherty, Brendan & Sethi, Rajiv, 2015. "Urban Crime," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1519-1621, Elsevier.
    5. Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz & Julien Pouget, 2009. "Youth Unemployment and Crime in France," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(5), pages 909-938, September.
    6. Gaurav Khanna & Carlos Medina & Anant Nyshadham & Jorge Tamayo & Nicolas Torres, 2023. "Formal Employment and Organised Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(654), pages 2427-2448.
    7. Mustard, David B., 2010. "How Do Labor Markets Affect Crime? New Evidence on an Old Puzzle," IZA Discussion Papers 4856, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Milo Bianchi & Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Pinotti, 2012. "Do Immigrants Cause Crime?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1318-1347, December.
    9. Stephen Machin & Olivier Marie, 2006. "Crime and benefit sanctions," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 5(2), pages 149-165, August.
    10. Deiana, C, 2016. "Local Labour Market Effects of Unemployment on Crime Induced by Trade Shocks," Economics Discussion Papers 16529, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    11. Paolo Buonanno, 2003. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime. A Review of the Literature," Working Papers 63, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    12. Povilas Lastauskas & Eirini Tatsi, 2017. "Spatial Nexus in Crime and Unemployement in Times of Crisis," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 39, Bank of Lithuania.
    13. de Blasio, Guido & Maggio, Giuseppe & Menon, Carlo, 2016. "Down and out in Italian towns: Measuring the impact of economic downturns on crime," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 99-102.
    14. Diogo G. C. Britto & Paolo Pinotti & Breno Sampaio, 2022. "The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1393-1423, July.
    15. Sergio Beraldo & Raul Caruso & Gilberto Turati, 2012. "Life is Now! Time Discounting and Crime: Aggregate Evidence from the Italian Regions (2002-2007)," Working papers 013, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    16. Pallab K. Ghosh & Gary A. Hoover & Zexuan Liu, 2020. "Do State Minimum Wages Affect the Incarceration Rate?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(3), pages 845-872, January.
    17. Songman Kang, 2016. "Inequality and crime revisited: effects of local inequality and economic segregation on crime," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(2), pages 593-626, April.
    18. Matthew J. Baker & Niklas J. Westelius, 2013. "Crime, expectations, and the deterrence hypothesis," Chapters, in: Thomas J. Miceli & Matthew J. Baker (ed.), Research Handbook on Economic Models of Law, chapter 12, pages 235-280, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Beraldo, Sergio & Caruso, Raul & Turati, Gilberto, 2013. "Life is now! Time preferences and crime: Aggregate evidence from the Italian regions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 73-81.
    20. Patrick Bennett & Amine Ouazad, 2020. "Job Displacement, Unemployment, and Crime: Evidence from Danish Microdata and Reforms [The Link between Human Capital, Mass Layoffs, and Firm Deaths]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(5), pages 2182-2220.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices; metal crime; goods prices; crime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.