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The Financial Crisis, Labor Market Transitions and Earnings: A Gendered Panel Data Analysis for Serbia


  • Blunch, Niels-Hugo

    () (Washington and Lee University)

  • Sulla, Victor

    () (World Bank)


While results are starting to emerge, not much is known yet about the dynamics of the labor markets of the former Eastern economies, especially in the context of the current Financial Crisis. Arguably, this is mainly due to paucity of (panel) data. By examining labor market transitions, earnings levels, and earnings growth and their correlates using a recent panel data set for Serbia, this paper combines both of these issues. Estimation of gross transition probabilities reveals that females are disadvantaged in the Serbian labor market in terms of moving out of the two undesirable states, unemployment and economic inactivity, relative to males during the first year of the financial crisis – though males are harder hit than females in terms of the levels of unemployment. In terms of earnings, the picture is reversed, with females being worse off in terms of the levels of earnings, while they have experienced somewhat smaller earnings decreases than males (though, owing to the gender earnings gap, from a much lower base). Multinomial logit estimations of employment, unemployment, and inactivity transitions and OLS regressions of earnings and earnings growth reveal substantial gender differences related to individual, job, and firm characteristics. The overall results therefore hint at both males and females being hit in terms of employment and earnings, though in different ways. Finally, the paper discusses policy implications and provides suggestions for further research.

Suggested Citation

  • Blunch, Niels-Hugo & Sulla, Victor, 2011. "The Financial Crisis, Labor Market Transitions and Earnings: A Gendered Panel Data Analysis for Serbia," IZA Discussion Papers 6151, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6151

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gong, Xiaodong & Van Soest, Arthur & Villagomez, Elizabeth, 2004. "Mobility in the Urban Labor Market: A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 1-36, October.
    2. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters,in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. David C. Ribar, 1992. "Child Care and the Labor Supply of Married Women: Reduced Form Evidence," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 27(1), pages 134-165.
    4. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, January.
    5. Bellmann Lutz & Estrin Saul & Lehmann Hartmut & Wadsworth Jonathan, 1995. "The Eastern German Labor Market in Transition: Gross Flow Estimates from Panel Data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-170, April.
    6. Tasci, H. Mehmet & Tansel, Aysit, 2005. "Unemployment and Transitions in the Turkish Labor Market: Evidence from Individual Level Data," IZA Discussion Papers 1663, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Blau Francine D & Kahn Lawrence M, 2007. "The Gender Pay Gap," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 4(4), pages 1-6, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antje Kröger & Kristina Meier, 2011. "Labor Markets and the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Tajikistan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1174, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item


    earnings growth; transition probabilities; labor market flows; gender; financial crisis; panel data; Serbia;

    JEL classification:

    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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