IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp18823.html

Affective Polarization, Media Outlets, and Opinion Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Della Lena, Sebastiano

    (Monash University)

  • Merlino, Luca

    (ECARES, Universite libre de Bruxelles)

  • Zenou, Yves

    (Monash University)

Abstract

We study opinion dynamics in a social network consisting of two groups. Agents update their opinions by conforming to members of their own group while rejecting the views of the opposing group (affective polarization), and by listening to a media outlet that may provide biased information. We characterize the long-run opinions and identify when affective polarization and media bias lead to ideological polarization, persistent disagreement, or failures of learning. We also derive when information interventions or censorship improve { the accuracy of average opinions} and reduce disagreement, and when they backfire: better information helps only under specific media bias configurations and when directed to the agents we identify as most effective at propagating it through the network.

Suggested Citation

  • Della Lena, Sebastiano & Merlino, Luca & Zenou, Yves, 2026. "Affective Polarization, Media Outlets, and Opinion Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 18823, IZA Network @ LISER.
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18823
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp18823.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luca P. Merlino & Paolo Pin & Nicole Tabasso, 2023. "Debunking Rumors in Networks," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 467-496, February.
    2. Buechel, Berno & Hellmann, Tim & Klößner, Stefan, 2015. "Opinion dynamics and wisdom under conformity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 240-257.
    3. S. Nageeb Ali & Maximilian Mihm & Lucas Siga, 2025. "The Political Economy of Zero‐Sum Thinking," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(1), pages 41-70, January.
    4. Grabisch, Michel & Poindron, Alexis & Rusinowska, Agnieszka, 2019. "A model of anonymous influence with anti-conformist agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Francis Bloch & Gabrielle Demange & Rachel Kranton, 2018. "Rumors And Social Networks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 421-448, May.
    6. George A. Akerlof & Rachel E. Kranton, 2000. "Economics and Identity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 715-753.
    7. Della Lena, Sebastiano & Jansen, Yannick & Zenou, Yves, 2026. "Cooperate More, Connect Less: The Network Consequences of Zero-Sum Environments," CEPR Discussion Papers 21459, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Ekaterina Zhuravskaya & Maria Petrova & Ruben Enikolopov, 2020. "Political Effects of the Internet and Social Media," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 415-438, August.
    9. Filipp Ushchev & Yves Zenou, 2020. "Social norms in networks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/387727, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Krishna Dasaratha & Benjamin Golub & Nir Hak, 2023. "Learning from Neighbours about a Changing State," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2326-2369.
    11. Jadbabaie, Ali & Molavi, Pooya & Sandroni, Alvaro & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza, 2012. "Non-Bayesian social learning," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 210-225.
    12. Pooya Molavi & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi & Ali Jadbabaie, 2018. "A Theory of Non‐Bayesian Social Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 445-490, March.
    13. Della Lena, Sebastiano, 2024. "The spread of misinformation in networks with individual and social learning," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. Grabisch, Michel & Poindron, Alexis & Rusinowska, Agnieszka, 2019. "A model of anonymous influence with anti-conformist agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2012. "How Homophily Affects the Speed of Learning and Best-Response Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1287-1338.
    16. Vivi Alatas & Arun G Chandrasekhar & Markus Mobius & Benjamin A Olken & Cindy Paladines, 2024. "Do Celebrity Endorsements Matter? A Twitter Experiment Promoting Vaccination in Indonesia," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(659), pages 913-933.
    17. Peter M. DeMarzo & Dimitri Vayanos & Jeffrey Zwiebel, 2003. "Persuasion Bias, Social Influence, and Unidimensional Opinions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 909-968.
    18. Kinateder, Markus & Merlino, Luca Paolo, 2022. "Local public goods with weighted link formation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 316-327.
    19. Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski & Jérôme Valette, 2025. "Media Coverage of Immigration and the Polarization of Attitudes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 337-368, January.
    20. Yann Bramoull? & Rachel Kranton & Martin D'Amours, 2014. "Strategic Interaction and Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 898-930, March.
    21. Sahil Chinoy & Nathan Nunn & Sandra Sequeira & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2026. "Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 116(3), pages 1052-1096, March.
    22. Blair Kidwell & Adam Farmer & David M. Hardesty, 2013. "Getting Liberals and Conservatives to Go Green: Political Ideology and Congruent Appeals," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 350-367.
    23. Rajiv Sethi & Muhamet Yildiz, 2016. "Communication With Unknown Perspectives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 2029-2069, November.
    24. Patrick Allmis & Luca Paolo Merlino, 2023. "A Model of Polarization on Social Media," Papers 2312.00457, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    25. James N. Druckman & Samara Klar & Yanna Krupnikov & Matthew Levendusky & John Barry Ryan, 2021. "Affective polarization, local contexts and public opinion in America," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 28-38, January.
    26. Carvalho, Jean-Paul & Bergeron, Augustin & Henrich, Joseph & Nunn, Nathan & Weigel, Jonathan, 2023. "Zero-Sum Thinking, the Evolution of Effort-Suppressing Beliefs, and Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 18484, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    27. Irena Grosfeld & Alexander Rodnyansky & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2013. "Persistent Antimarket Culture: A Legacy of the Pale of Settlement after the Holocaust," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 189-226, August.
    28. Levi Boxell & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2024. "Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 557-565, March.
    29. Steven Callander & Juan Carlos Carbajal, 2022. "Cause and Effect in Political Polarization: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(4), pages 825-880.
    30. Ushchev, Philip & Zenou, Yves, 2020. "Social norms in networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    31. Georgy Egorov & Sergei Guriev & Maxim Mironov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2025. "Political Information and Network Effects," NBER Working Papers 34430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Ro'ee Levy, 2021. "Social Media, News Consumption, and Polarization: Evidence from a Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 831-870, March.
    33. Shanto Iyengar & Sean J. Westwood, 2015. "Fear and Loathing Across Party Lines: New Evidence on Group Polarization," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(3), pages 690-707, July.
    34. Moses Shayo, 2020. "Social Identity and Economic Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 355-389, August.
    35. Arthur Campbell & C. Matthew Leister & Philip Ushchev & Yves Zenou, 2025. "The Polarization Paradox: Why More Connections Can Divide Us," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2582, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    36. Markus Kinateder & Luca Paolo Merlino, 2017. "Public Goods in Endogenous Networks," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 187-212, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buechel, Berno & Klößner, Stefan & Meng, Fanyuan & Nassar, Anis, 2023. "Misinformation due to asymmetric information sharing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Zafer Kanik & Zaruhi Hakobyan, 2026. "Strategic Expression, Popularity Traps, and Welfare in Social Media," Papers 2601.01370, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    3. Della Lena, Sebastiano, 2024. "The spread of misinformation in networks with individual and social learning," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Michel Grabisch & Agnieszka Rusinowska, 2020. "A Survey on Nonstrategic Models of Opinion Dynamics," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-29, December.
    5. Alexis Poindron & Nizar Allouch, 2024. "A Model of Competing Gangs in Networks," Games, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Golman, Russell, 2023. "Acceptable discourse: Social norms of beliefs and opinions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    7. Sebastiano Della Lena & Luca Paolo Merlino, 2021. "Group Identity, Social Learning and Opinion Dynamics," Papers 2110.07226, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    8. Nicolás Ajzenman & Bruno Ferman & Pedro C. Sant’Anna, 2023. "Rooting for the Same Team: On the Interplay between Political and Social Identities in the Formation of Social Ties," Working Papers 231, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    9. Liza Charroin, 2018. "Homophily, peer effects and dishonesty," Post-Print halshs-01993618, HAL.
    10. Comola, Margherita & Rusinowska, Agnieszka & Villeval, Marie Claire, 2026. "Competing for influence in networks through strategic targeting," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 402-418.
    11. Eger, Steffen, 2016. "Opinion dynamics and wisdom under out-group discrimination," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 97-107.
    12. Eugen Dimant, 2024. "Hate Trumps Love: The Impact of Political Polarization on Social Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(1), pages 1-31, January.
    13. Ozan Candogan & Nicole Immorlica & Bar Light & Jerry Anunrojwong, 2022. "Social Learning under Platform Influence: Consensus and Persistent Disagreement," Papers 2202.12453, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    14. Menéndez, Luis & Montolio, Daniel & Mueller, Hannes & Slataper, Francesco, 2025. "Breaking the Echo Chamber: Social Media Networks and Political Conflict," CEPR Discussion Papers 20559, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Anufriev, Mikhail & Borissov, Kirill & Pakhnin, Mikhail, 2023. "Dissonance minimization and conversation in social networks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 167-191.
    16. Mueller-Frank, Manuel, 2024. "As strong as the weakest node: The impact of misinformation in social networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    17. Mikhail Anufriev & Kirill Borisov & Mikhail Pakhnin, 2026. "Hypocrisy in a Simple Social Interaction Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 12700, CESifo.
    18. Sebastiano Della Lena, 2019. "Non-Bayesian Social Learning and the Spread of Misinformation in Networks," Working Papers 2019:09, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    19. Khandelwal, Vatsal, 2024. "Learning in networks with idiosyncratic agents," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 225-249.
    20. Miguel Risco, 2025. "Network effects on information acquisition by DeGroot updaters," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(1), pages 201-234, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18823. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Fallak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaalu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.