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The Value of Reliable Statistics

Author

Listed:
  • Bloom, Nicholas

    (Stanford University)

  • Groshen, Erica

    (Cornell University)

  • Hobbs, Duncan

    (American Enterprise Institute)

  • Strain, Michael

    (American Enterprise Institute)

Abstract

On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and claimed that the agency’s data were “rigged.†In the aftermath, measures of economic policy uncertainty rose sharply, consistent with the idea that reduced trust in official data increases uncertainty for investors, businesses, and households. We use an event-study design to estimate the effect of the firing on policy uncertainty, and then map that increase in uncertainty into implied macroeconomic outcomes. This yields a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the marginal value of public trust in official statistics. Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the agency’s budget.

Suggested Citation

  • Bloom, Nicholas & Groshen, Erica & Hobbs, Duncan & Strain, Michael, 2026. "The Value of Reliable Statistics," IZA Discussion Papers 18631, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18631
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    2. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    3. Ellen Hughes-Cromwick & Julia Coronado, 2019. "The Value of US Government Data to US Business Decisions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 131-146, Winter.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General

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