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Speeding, Punishment, and Recidivism: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

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  • Gehrsitz, Markus

    (University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of temporary driver's license suspensions on driving behavior. A little known rule in the German traffic penalty catalogue maintains that drivers who commit a series of speeding transgressions within 365 days should have their license suspended for one month. My regression discontinuity design exploits the quasi-random assignment of license suspensions caused by the 365-days cut-off and shows that 1-month license suspensions lower the probability of recidivating within a year by 20 percent. This is largely a specific deterrence effect driven by the punishment itself and not by incapacitation, information asymmetries, or the threat of stiffer future penalties.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehrsitz, Markus, 2017. "Speeding, Punishment, and Recidivism: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," IZA Discussion Papers 10707, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10707
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rebollo-Sanz, Yolanda & Rodríguez-López, Jesús & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2021. "Penalty-point system, deterrence and road safety: A quasi-experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 408-433.
    2. Bauernschuster, Stefan & Rekers, Ramona, 2022. "Speed limit enforcement and road safety," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    3. Jason Bantjes & Sophia du Plessis & Ada Jansen & Krige Siebrits, 2021. "Better enforcement is essential, but may be inadequate: Findings of a survey on the factors affecting payment of speeding fines in Cape Town, South Africa," Working Papers 03/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    4. Felipe Goncalves & Steven Mello, 2021. "A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1406-1441, May.
    5. Jason Bantjes & Sophia du Plessis & Ada Jansen & Krige Siebrits, 2021. "Better Enforcement Is Essential, but May Be Inadequate: Findings of a Survey on the Factors Affecting Payment of Speeding Fines in Cape Town, South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-16, April.
    6. Agan, Amanda & Doleac, Jennifer & Harvey, Anna, 2021. "Misdemeanor Prosecution," IZA Discussion Papers 14234, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Fry, Jane M., 2023. "Do increased speeding fines save lives?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    8. Carl Lieberman & Elizabeth Luh & Michael Mueller-Smith, 2023. "Criminal court fees, earnings, and expenditures: A multi-state RD analysis of survey and administrative data," Working Papers 23-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    9. Siân Mughan & Joanna Carroll, 2021. "Escaping the long arm of the law? Racial disparities in the effect of drivers' license suspensions on offense probabilities," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(4), pages 1366-1389, April.
    10. Martti Kaila, 2024. "How Do People React to Income-Based Fines? Evidence from Speeding Tickets Discontinuities," CESifo Working Paper Series 11064, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crime; speeding; deterrence; regression discontinuity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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