IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

“European Government Bond Markets and Monetary Policy Surprises: Returns, Volatility and Integration”


  • Pilar Abad

    () (University Rey Juan Carlos and University of Barcelona)

  • Helena Chuliá

    () (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)


In this paper we investigate the response of bond markets to euro area and US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we analyze the effect of unexpected changes in interest rates implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) not only on the returns, but also on the volatility and the integration of European government bond markets. For all three characteristics our results show that the response to monetary policy surprises varies across groups of countries (EMU EU-15 central, EMU EU-15 peripheral, non-EMU EU-15 and non-EMU new EU). We also find that the effects of monetary policy announcements on the level of integration are more pronounced than those on returns and volatility. Finally, our results paint a complex picture of the effects of monetary policy news releases on the level of integration. The effect of ECB monetary policy surprises differs across old and new European Union members, while the effect of FOMC monetary policy surprises differs across EMU and non-EMU members.

Suggested Citation

  • Pilar Abad & Helena Chuliá, 2013. "“European Government Bond Markets and Monetary Policy Surprises: Returns, Volatility and Integration”," IREA Working Papers 201325, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:201325

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'Reilly, 2009. "European monetary policy surprises: the aggregate and sectoral stock market response," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 156-171.
    3. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
    4. Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & McManus, Ginette M., 2008. "The dynamics of Central European equity market comovements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 605-622, August.
    5. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Richard Priestley, 2006. "EMU and European Stock Market Integration," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 365-392, January.
    6. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    7. Favero, Carlo & Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2010. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(01), pages 107-134, February.
    8. Nowak, Sylwia & Andritzky, Jochen & Jobst, Andreas & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Macroeconomic fundamentals, price discovery, and volatility dynamics in emerging bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2584-2597, October.
    9. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
    10. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
    11. Barr, David G. & Priestley, Richard, 2004. "Expected returns, risk and the integration of international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-97, February.
    12. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    13. Andritzky, Jochen R. & Bannister, Geoffrey J. & Tamirisa, Natalia T., 2007. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements on emerging market bonds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 20-37, March.
    14. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    15. Rohan Christie-David & Mukesh Chaudhry & Walayet Khan, 2002. "News Releases, Market Integration, and Market Leadership," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 223-245.
    16. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
    17. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility-Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948.
    18. Brenner, Menachem & Pasquariello, Paolo & Subrahmanyam, Marti, 2009. "On the Volatility and Comovement of U.S. Financial Markets around Macroeconomic News Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(06), pages 1265-1289, December.
    19. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Steeley, James M. & Matyushkin, Alexander, 2015. "The effects of quantitative easing on the volatility of the gilt-edged market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 113-128.
    2. Pilar Abad & Helena Chulia, 2016. "European Government Bond Market Contagion in Turbulent Times," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(3), pages 263-276, June.
    3. Kronick, Jeremy, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks from the EU and US: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 59416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pilar Abad & Helena Chuliá, 2014. "European government bond market integration in turbulent times," Working Papers 2014-08, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    5. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:281-291 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Monetary policy announcements; Bond market integration; Interest rate surprises. JEL classification: E44; F36; G15.;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:201325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alicia García). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.