IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2012-052.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy and the Real Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Santanu Chatterjee
  • Mr. Azer Mursagulov

Abstract

Government spending on infrastructure has recently increased sharply in many emerging-market economies. This paper examines the mechanism through which public infrastructure spending affects the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Using a two-sector dependent open economy model with intersectoral adjustment costs, we show that government spending generates a non-monotonic U-shaped adjustment path for the real exchange rate with sharp intertemporal trade-offs. The effect of government spending on the real exchange rate depends critically on (i) the composition of public spending, (ii) the underlying financing policy, (iii) the intensity of private capital in production, and (iv) the relative productivity of public infrastructure. In deriving these results, the model also identifies conditions under which the predictions of the neoclassical open economy model can be reconciled with empirical regularities, namely the intertemporal relationship between government spending, private consumption, and the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Santanu Chatterjee & Mr. Azer Mursagulov, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 2012/052, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25733
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201119, December.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Ciferri, Davide & Girardi, Alessandro, 2011. "Fiscal shocks and real exchange rate dynamics: Some evidence for Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 709-723, September.
    3. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-1196, September.
    4. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
    5. Asea, Patrick K & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: A General-Equilibrium Appraisal," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 244-267, October.
    6. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    7. Philip L. Brock, 1996. "International Transfers, the Relative Price on Non-Traded Goods, and the Current Account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 163-180, February.
    8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On cross-country differences in the persistence of real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 375-397, April.
    9. Brock, Philip L & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1994. "The Dependent-Economy Model with Both Traded and Nontraded Capital Goods," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 306-325, October.
    10. Fisher, Walter H & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1998. "Public Investment, Congestion, and Private Capital Accumulation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 399-413, March.
    11. Ravn, Morten & Uribe, Martín & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 6541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1994. "Public investment in infrastructure in a simple growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1173-1187, November.
    13. Ibrahim Chowdhury, 2004. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: empirical evidence from six emerging market countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 697-705.
    14. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845.
    15. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Vahagn Galstyan & Philip R. Lane, 2009. "The Composition of Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1233-1249, September.
    17. Patrick K. Asea, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: A General Equilibrium Appraisal," UCLA Economics Working Papers 709, UCLA Department of Economics.
    18. Sen, Partha & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1990. "Investment tax credit in an open economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 277-299, August.
    19. Maurice Obstfeld., 1993. "Model Trending Real Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-011, University of California at Berkeley.
    20. Guvenen, Fatih, 2006. "Reconciling conflicting evidence on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution: A macroeconomic perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1451-1472, October.
    21. Rioja, Felix K., 2003. "Filling potholes: macroeconomic effects of maintenance versus new investments in public infrastructure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2281-2304, September.
    22. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    23. Chatterjee, Santanu & Sakoulis, Georgios & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2003. "Unilateral capital transfers, public investment, and economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1077-1103, December.
    24. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    25. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1991. "The EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 269-328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1989. "Fiscal deficits and relative prices in a growing world economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-484, May.
    28. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2010. "Aid volatility and poverty traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-7, January.
    29. van Wincoop, Eric, 1993. "Structural adjustment and the construction sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 177-201, January.
    30. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    31. Engel, Charles, 1993. "Real exchange rates and relative prices : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-50, August.
    32. Valerie Cerra & Serpil Tekin & Stephen Turnovsky, 2009. "Foreign Transfers and Real Exchange Rate Adjustments in a Financially Constrained Dependent Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 147-181, April.
    33. Mahbub Morshed, A. K. M. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2004. "Sectoral adjustment costs and real exchange rate dynamics in a two-sector dependent economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 147-177, May.
    34. Chatterjee, Santanu & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2007. "Foreign aid and economic growth: The role of flexible labor supply," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 507-533, September.
    35. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Snober Fazal & Muhammad Azhar Bhatti & Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad, 2019. "Sectorial growth, Exchange rate and Fiscal policy in Developing Economies: The Interlinkages," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 1(2), pages 68-81, December.
    2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Burcu Berke & Vicente Esteve, 2020. "Fiscal policy and the real exchange rate: some evidence from Spain," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 267-280, May.
    3. Chatterjee, Santanu & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2018. "Remittances and the informal economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 66-83.
    4. Santanu Chatterjee & Olaf Posch & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Delays in Public Goods," CESifo Working Paper Series 6341, CESifo.
    5. Santanu Chatterjee & Mark C. Kelly & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2022. "Foreign aid, public investment, and the informal economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 174-201, January.
    6. Miao, Nana & Sharif, Arshian & Ozturk, Ilhan & Razzaq, Asif, 2023. "How do the exploitation of natural resources and fiscal policy affect green growth? Moderating role of ecological governance in G7 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    7. Prilepskiy, Ilya (Прилепский, Илья), 2015. "The impact of fiscal policy on the current account balance and the real exchange rate [Влияние Бюджетной Политики На Сальдо Текущего Счета И Реальный Курс Рубля]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 7-23.
    8. Raimundo Soto & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Isaac Martínez, 2019. "Exports, Exchange Regimes, and Fragility," Documentos de Trabajo 526, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    9. Lan Huong Hoang, 2016. "The Role of Exchange Rate in Supporting Trade Balance in Vietnam," IHEID Working Papers 16-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    10. Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2014. "Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets: Can Fiscal Policy Help?," IMF Working Papers 2014/001, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ramona Tiganasu & Gabriela Carmen Pascariu & Dan Lupu, 2022. "Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 667-698, September.
    12. Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César & Jaramillo Flechas, Luis Eduardo, 2019. "Descomponiendo el Efecto del Gasto Público en la Tasa de Cambio Real: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano || Decomposing the Effect of Public Spending on the Real Exchange Rate: An Approximation to th," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 27(1), pages 91-114, June.
    13. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Johannsen, Florian, 2017. "Monetary uncertainty and trade in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: A firm-level analysis," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 476-490.
    14. Santanu Chatterjee & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2023. "Government expenditure and informality in an emerging economy: the recent experience of India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 293-318, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Santanu Chatterjee & Mark C. Kelly & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2022. "Foreign aid, public investment, and the informal economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 174-201, January.
    2. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    3. Chatterjee, Santanu & Mahbub Morshed, A.K.M., 2011. "Reprint to: Infrastructure provision and macroeconomic performance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1405-1423, September.
    4. Chatterjee, Santanu & Mahbub Morshed, A.K.M., 2011. "Infrastructure provision and macroeconomic performance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1288-1306, August.
    5. Chatterjee, Santanu & Sakoulis, Georgios & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2003. "Unilateral capital transfers, public investment, and economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1077-1103, December.
    6. Santanu Chatterjee & Olaf Posch & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Delays in Public Goods," Working Papers 1702, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2017.
    7. Serpil Bouza & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2012. "The Effects of Foreign Transfers with Flexible Labor Supply," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-39, January.
    8. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Ciferri, Davide & Girardi, Alessandro, 2011. "Fiscal shocks and real exchange rate dynamics: Some evidence for Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 709-723, September.
    9. Silvia Bertarelli, 2006. "Public capital and growth," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 361-398.
    10. Giulia FELICE, 2009. "Size and composition of public investment, structural change and growth," Departmental Working Papers 2009-28, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano, revised 27 Dec 2011.
    11. Andreas Irmen & Johanna Kuehnel, 2009. "Productive Government Expenditure And Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 692-733, September.
    12. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    13. Francisco Castro & Daniel Garrote, 2015. "The effects of fiscal shocks on the exchange rate in the EMU and differences with the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1341-1365, December.
    14. Santanu Chatterjee & Stephen Turnovsky, 2002. "Substitutability of Capital, Investment Costs, and Foreign Aid," Working Papers UWEC-2002-08-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2002.
    15. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sager, Michael, 2009. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rate: a reappraisal," Working Paper Series 1046, European Central Bank.
    16. Antonio Soares Martins Neto & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2017. "Competitive Exchange Rate and Public Infrastructure in a Macrodynamic of Economic Growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 792-815, November.
    17. Turnovsky, S., 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: some Recent Developments," Papers 5, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    18. Yan, Beiling, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity: A Canada/U.S. Exploration," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2002002e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    19. Francisco de Castro & Laura Fernández, 2013. "The Effects Of Fiscal Shocks On The Exchange Rate In Spain," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(2), pages 151-180.
    20. Yin Germaschewski, 2016. "Getting help from abroad: The macroeconomics of foreign direct investment in infrastructure in low‐income countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(4), pages 1502-1535, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.