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The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials: Financial Repression or Income Catch-Up?

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  • Ms. Anna Shabunina
  • Mr. Julio Escolano
  • Jaejoon Woo

Abstract

The interest rate-growth differential (IRGD) shows a marked correlation with GDP per capita. It has been on average around 1 percentage point for large advanced economies during 1999-2008; but below -7 percentage points among non-advanced economies - exerting a powerful stabilizing influence on government debt ratios. We show that large negative IRGDs are largely due to real interest rates well below market equilibrium - possibly stemming from financial repression and captive and distorted markets, whereas the income catch-up process plays a relatively modest role. We find econometric support for this conjecture. Therefore, the IRGD in non-advanced economies is likely to rise with financial integration and market development, well before their GDP per capita converges to advanced-economy levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Anna Shabunina & Mr. Julio Escolano & Jaejoon Woo, 2011. "The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials: Financial Repression or Income Catch-Up?," IMF Working Papers 2011/260, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/260
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