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Dynamic Loan Loss Provisions in Uruguay: Properties, Shock Absorption Capacity and Simulations Using Alternative Formulas

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  • Torsten Wezel

Abstract

This paper assesses the merits of countercyclical loan loss provisioning in Uruguay. Using a stress test methodology, it quantifies the protection against macroeconomic shocks provided by the stock of dynamic provisions accumulated since 2001 and finds that medium-sized shocks would be fully absorbed, offsetting the additional costs caused by rising specific provisions. In addition, the paper simulates the path of dynamic provisions under the formulas used in Spain, Peru and Bolivia, showing that the alternative paths diverge significantly from the actual buildup and in part better conform to the Uruguayan credit cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Torsten Wezel, 2010. "Dynamic Loan Loss Provisions in Uruguay: Properties, Shock Absorption Capacity and Simulations Using Alternative Formulas," IMF Working Papers 2010/125, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/125
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    1. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2001. "Credit growth, problem loans and credit risk provisioning in Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 331-353, Bank for International Settlements.
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    1. repec:idn:journl:v:21:y:2019:i:3e:p:1-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz, 2017. "Cyclically adjusted provisions and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 143-162.
    3. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz, 2017. "Cyclically adjusted provisions and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 143-162.
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Gambetta, Nicolás & García-Benau, María Antonia & Zorio-Grima, Ana, 2016. "Data analytics in banks' audit: The case of loan loss provisions in Uruguay," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 4793-4797.
    6. Soedarmono, Wahyoe & Yusgiantoro, Inka, 2023. "Islamic bank procyclicality in an emerging market economy: Do bank size and financing contracts matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 132-141.
    7. Soedarmono, Wahyoe & Pramono, Sigid Eko & Tarazi, Amine, 2017. "The procyclicality of loan loss provisions in Islamic banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 911-919.
    8. Małgorzata Olszak & Iwona Kowalska & Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska & Filip Świtała, 2020. "Do cyclicality of loan-loss provisions and income smoothing matter for the capital crunch – the case of commercial banks in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(4), pages 383-436.
    9. Chang, Soon-taek, 2010. "Mortgage lending in Korea : an example of a countercyclical macroprudential approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5505, The World Bank.
    10. Craigwell, Roland C & Elliott, Wayne A, 2011. "Loan loss provisioning in the commercial banking system of Barbados: practices and determinants," MPRA Paper 33426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Chile: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/262, International Monetary Fund.
    12. repec:hfa:wpaper:12-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Torsten Wezel & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Francesco Columba, 2012. "Dynamic Loan Loss Provisioning: Simulationson Effectiveness and Guide to Implementation," IMF Working Papers 2012/110, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2013. "Macroprudential Regulations in Central America," Working Papers 318, Center for Global Development.
    15. Arturo J. Galindo & Liliana Rojas-Suarez & Marielle del Valle, 2013. "Macroprudential Regulations in Andean Countries," Working Papers 319, Center for Global Development.
    16. George J. Bratsiotis & Kasun D. Pathirage, 2023. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy and Welfare in an Estimated Four-Agent New Keynesian Model," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2304, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. Miguel Resende & Carla Carvalho & Cecília Carmo, 2024. "Impacts of the Expected Credit Loss Model on Pro-Cyclicality, Earnings Management, and Equity Management in the Portuguese Banking Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, March.
    18. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Zilberman, Roy, 2015. "Loan Loss Provisioning Rules, Procyclicality, and Financial Volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 301-315.
    19. Ren, Haocong, 2011. "Countercyclical financial regulation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5823, The World Bank.
    20. Edgardo Demaestri & Jorge Ottavianelli & Gustavo Ferro, 2015. "Integracion de la supervisión financiera en el Banco Central: La experiencia de Uruguay," Estudios Economicos, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Departamento de Economia, vol. 32(64), pages 31-51, january-j.
    21. Ali Ashraf & M. Kabir Hassan & Kyle J. Putnam & Arja Turunen-Red, 2019. "Prudential Regulatory Regimes, Accounting Standards, And Earnings Management In The Banking Industry," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(3), pages 367-394, January.
    22. Malgorzata Olszak & Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska & Iwona Kowalska & Filip Œwita³a, 2017. "The effect of capital ratio on lending: Do loan-loss provisioning practices matter?," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 22017, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    23. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2012. "Do Dynamic Provisions Enhance Bank Solvency and Reduce Credit Procyclicality? a Study of the Chilean Banking System," IMF Working Papers 2012/124, International Monetary Fund.

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