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Commodity Price Shocks and the Oddson Fiscal Performance

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  • Mr. Francis Y Kumah
  • Mr. John J Matovu

Abstract

Unanticipated changes in commodity prices can generate significant movements in fiscal aggregates. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics of these fiscal movements in the context of transitory commodity price shocks using sample data from four CIS countries- two oil-producing and two non-oil commodity-intensive countries. It adopts a structural VAR approach and identifies the dynamic effects of commodity price shocks on fiscal performance under two broad tax regimes. Stochastic simulations indicate high probabilities of fiscal overperformance in the short term when commodity prices are high. These probabilities deteriorate significantly, however, in the long term after the transitory positive commodity price shock has dissipated, particularly when lax fiscal policy is adopted during the period of the price boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Francis Y Kumah & Mr. John J Matovu, 2005. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Oddson Fiscal Performance," IMF Working Papers 2005/171, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/253, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Haytem Ahmed Troug & Matt Murray, 2020. "The Asymmetric Effects of Fluctuations in Oil Prices on the Performance of the Libyan Economy: A VAR Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 282-296.
    3. Troug, Haytem & Murray, Matt, 2015. "The Effects of Asymmetric Shocks in Oil Prices on the Performance of the Libyan Economy," MPRA Paper 68705, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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