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Is Inflation Targeting Still on Target?: The Recent Experience of Latin America

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  • Céspedes, Luis Felipe
  • Chang, Roberto
  • Velasco, Andrés

Abstract

This paper reviews the recent experience of a half-dozen Latin American inflation targeting (IT) nations. Repeated and large deviations from the standard IT framework are documented: exchange market interventions have been lasting and widespread; the real exchange rate has often become a target of policy, though this target is seldom made explicit; a range of other non-conventional policy tools, especially changes in reserve requirements but occasionally taxes or restrictions on international capital movements, also came into common use. As in developed nations, during the 2008-2009 crisis issues of liquidity provision took center stage. A first evaluation of the emerging modified framework of monetary policy is also attempted. In general terms, the new approach seems to have been effective, at the very least since the region weathered the crisis reasonably well. But also, and perhaps more importantly, many questions remain about the desirability of non-conventional monetary policies in Latin America.

Suggested Citation

  • Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andrés, 2013. "Is Inflation Targeting Still on Target?: The Recent Experience of Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4243, Inter-American Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:4243
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    2. Emiliano Libman, 2019. "Destabilizing Balance Sheet Effects in the New Consensus Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 590-611, October.
    3. Kose, M. Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Carlo Panico, Francesco Purificato, Elvira Sapienza, 2015. "Benefici, problemi e prospettive dell’integrazione monetaria in Europa (Benefits, issues and future of monetary integration in Europe)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 68(271), pages 305-339.
    5. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2017. "Financial Frictions and Unconventional Monetary Policy in Emerging Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 154-191, April.
    6. Ghosh, Taniya & Ajit, Yadavindu, 2025. "Does inflation targeting live up to all the hype?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Alex Carrasco & David Florian Hoyle & Rafael Nivin, 2019. "SFX Interventions, Financial Intermediation, and External Shocks in Emerging Economies," Working Papers 160, Peruvian Economic Association.
    8. Pérez, Fernando, 2015. "Comparing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks in Latin America: A Hierarchical Panel VAR," Working Papers 2015-015, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    9. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    10. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    11. Tenreyro, Silvana & Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Erwin Hansen & Marco Morales, 2021. "When does the Central Bank intervene the foreign exchange market? Estimating a time‐varying threshold intervention function," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 688-698, June.
    13. Santiago Taboada & Emiliano Libman, 2021. "Sticky Inflationary Expectations and Inflation Targeting in (some) Emerging and Less Developed Economies," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 40(82), pages 83-111.
    14. Ortiz, Marco & Inca, Arthur & Solf, Fabrizio, 2024. "Welfare implications of nomimal GDP targeting in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 119999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2015. "Desafíos del Manejo de la Liquidez y de los Activos Internacionales en Latinoamérica," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(2), pages 62-96, August.
    16. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome & Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Alejandro M. Werner, 2016. "Central Banking in Latin America: The Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2016/197, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Carrasco, Alex & Florián Hoyle, David, 2025. "External shocks and FX intervention policy in financially dollarized economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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