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Structural Econometric Approach to Bidding in the Main refinancing Operations of the Eurosystem

  • Nuno Cassola


  • Christian Ewerhart


  • Claudio Morana


This paper contributes to the existing literature on central bank repo auctions. It is based on a structural econometric approach, whereby the primitives of bidding behavior (individual bid schedules and bid-shading components) are directly estimated. With the estimated parameters we calibrate a theoretical model in order to illustrate some comparative static results. This exercise sheds light on the debate about the reversed winner's curse found in the empirical literature on ECB auctions by showing that it may be related to an identification problem. Overall the results suggest that strategic and optimal behavior is prevalent in ECB tenders. We find evidence of a statistically significant bid-shading component, even though the number of bidders is very large. Bid-shading increases with liquidity uncertainty and decreases with the number of participants and with price uncertainty. We argue that a sufficient condition for the latter effect to appear in the data is that the residual supply facing an individual bidder does not change much ex-post when very short-term market rates increase.

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Paper provided by ICER - International Centre for Economic Research in its series ICER Working Papers with number 26-2006.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:26-2006
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  1. Kyle, Albert S, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 317-55, July.
  2. Philip A. Haile & Han Hong & Matthew Shum, 2003. "Nonparametric Tests for Common Values at First-Price Sealed-Bid Auctions," NBER Working Papers 10105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Matt Shum & Phil Haile & Han Hong, 2003. "Nonparametric Tests for Common Values in First-Price Auctions," Economics Working Paper Archive 501, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  4. Matthew Shum, 2000. "Nonparametric Tests for Common Values," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1598, Econometric Society.
  5. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2004. "Bidding and Performance in Repo Auctions: Evidence from ECB Open Market Operations," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9878h0kn, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  6. Athey, Susan & Haile, Philip A., 2007. "Nonparametric Approaches to Auctions," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 60 Elsevier.
  7. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521586115 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Ewerhart, Christian & Cassola, Nuno & Valla, Natacha, 2006. "Declining valuations and equilibrium bidding in central bank refinancing operations," Working Paper Series 0668, European Central Bank.
  9. Cassola, N. & Ewerhart , C. & Valla, N., 2006. "Declining Valuations and Equilibrium Bidding Central Bank Refinancing Operations," Working papers 151, Banque de France.
  10. Klemperer, Paul D & Meyer, Margaret A, 1989. "Supply Function Equilibria in Oligopoly under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1243-77, November.
  11. Wilson, Robert, 1979. "Auctions of Shares," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 675-89, November.
  12. Giuseppe Bruno & Ernesto Maurizio Ordine & Antonio Scalia, 2005. "Banks� participation in the Eurosystem auctions and money market integration," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 562, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521355643 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Back, Kerry & Zender, Jaime F, 1993. "Auctions of Divisible Goods: On the Rationale for the Treasury Experiment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 733-64.
  15. Viswanathan, S. & Wang, James J. D., 2002. "Market architecture: limit-order books versus dealership markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 127-167, April.
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