IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/15158.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The 2007 Subprime Market Crisis Through the Lens of European Central Bank Auctions for Short-Term Funds

Author

Listed:
  • Nuno Cassola
  • Ali Hortacsu
  • Jakub Kastl

Abstract

In this paper we study European banks' demand for short-term funds (liquidity) during the summer 2007 subprime market crisis. We use bidding data from the European Central Bank's auctions for one-week loans, their main channel of monetary policy implementation. Through a model of bidding, we show that banks' behavior reflects their cost of obtaining short-term funds elsewhere (i.e., in the interbank market) as well as a strategic response to other bidders. We find considerable heterogeneity across banks in their willingness to pay for short-term funds supplied in these auctions. Accounting for the strategic component is important: while a naive interpretation of the raw bidding data may suggest that virtually all banks suffered a dramatic increase in the cost of obtaining funds in the interbank market, we find that for about one third of the banks, the change in bidding behavior was simply a strategic response. Using a complementary data set, we also find that banks' pre-turmoil liquidity costs, as estimated by our model, are predictive of their post-turmoil liquidity costs, and that there is considerable heterogeneity in these costs with respect to the country-of-origin. Finally, among the publicly traded banks, the willingness to pay for short-term funds in the second half of 2007 are predictive of stock prices in late 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuno Cassola & Ali Hortacsu & Jakub Kastl, 2009. "The 2007 Subprime Market Crisis Through the Lens of European Central Bank Auctions for Short-Term Funds," NBER Working Papers 15158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15158
    Note: AP EFG IFM IO ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15158.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2002. "Bidding and performance in repo auctions: evidence from ECB open market operations," Working Paper Series 157, European Central Bank.
    2. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2009. "A black swan in the money market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    3. Milgrom,Paul, 2004. "Putting Auction Theory to Work," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521536721.
    4. Robert Wilson, 1979. "Auctions of Shares," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 93(4), pages 675-689.
    5. Lutz G. Arnold & John G. Riley, 2009. "On the Possibility of Credit Rationing in the Stiglitz-Weiss Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2012-2021, December.
    6. Tapking, Jens & Eisenschmidt, Jens, 2009. "Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets," Working Paper Series 1025, European Central Bank.
    7. Ewerhart, Christian & Cassola, Nuno & Valla, Natacha, 2010. "Declining valuations and equilibrium bidding in central bank refinancing operations," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 30-43, January.
    8. Adam Ashcraft & Morten L. Bech & W. Scott Frame, 2010. "The Federal Home Loan Bank System: The Lender of Next‐to‐Last Resort?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 551-583, June.
    9. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    10. Athey, Susan & Haile, Philip A., 2007. "Nonparametric Approaches to Auctions," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 60, Elsevier.
    11. Acharya, Viral V. & Schnabl, Philipp & Suarez, Gustavo, 2013. "Securitization without risk transfer," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 515-536.
    12. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Burcu Duygan-Bump & Jose Fillat & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2008. "Looking behind the aggregates: a reply to “Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008”," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers QAU08-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    13. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Hirsch, Astrid & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "Bidding behaviour in the ECB's main refinancing operations during the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1052, European Central Bank.
    14. Kastl, Jakub, 2012. "On the properties of equilibria in private value divisible good auctions with constrained bidding," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 339-352.
    15. Ewerhart, Christian & Tapking, Jens, 2008. "Repo markets, counterparty risk and the 2007/2008 liquidity crisis," Working Paper Series 909, European Central Bank.
    16. François-Louis Michaud & Christian Upper, 2008. "What drives interbank rates? Evidence from the Libor panel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cassola, Nuno & Ewerhart, Christian & Morana, Claudio, 2007. "Structural econometric approach to bidding in the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 19, pages 81-90.
    2. Acharya, Viral V. & Skeie, David, 2011. "A model of liquidity hoarding and term premia in inter-bank markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 436-447.
    3. Guillermo Andrés Cangrejo Jiménez, 2014. "La Estructura a Plazos del Riesgo Interbancario," Documentos de Trabajo 012172, Universidad del Rosario.
    4. Jason Allen & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2011. "Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada," Staff Working Papers 11-17, Bank of Canada.
    5. De Socio, Antonio, 2013. "The interbank market after the financial turmoil: Squeezing liquidity in a “lemons market” or asking liquidity “on tap”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1340-1358.
    6. Brossard, Olivier & Saroyan, Susanna, 2016. "Hoarding and short-squeezing in times of crisis: Evidence from the Euro overnight money market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 163-185.
    7. Olivier Brossard & Susanna Saroyan, 2016. "Hoarding and short-squeezing in times of crisis: Evidence from the Euro overnight money market," Post-Print hal-01293693, HAL.
    8. Filipović, Damir & Trolle, Anders B., 2013. "The term structure of interbank risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 707-733.
    9. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
    10. Hortaçsu, Ali, 2011. "Recent progress in the empirical analysis of multi-unit auctions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 345-349, May.
    11. Vergote, Olivier & Sugo, Tomohiro, 2020. "Who takes the ECB’s targeted funding?," Working Paper Series 2439, European Central Bank.
    12. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69, November.
    13. Paolo Fegatelli, 2010. "The role of collateral requirements in the crisis: one tool for two objectives?," BCL working papers 44, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    14. Massimiliano Affinito, 2013. "Central bank refinancing, interbank markets, and the hypothesis of liquidity hoarding: evidence from a euro-area banking system," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 928, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Stefano Puddu & Andreas Waelchli, 2015. "TAF Effect on Liquidity Risk Exposure," IRENE Working Papers 15-07, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 945-954.
    17. Xavier Vives, 2011. "Strategic Supply Function Competition With Private Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1919-1966, November.
    18. Ollikka, Kimmo & Tukiainen, Janne, 2013. "Central bank liquidity auction mechanism design and the interbank market," Research Discussion Papers 21/2013, Bank of Finland.
    19. Gallitschke, Janek & Seifried (née Müller), Stefanie & Seifried, Frank Thomas, 2017. "Interbank interest rates: Funding liquidity risk and XIBOR basis spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 142-152.
    20. Aneta Hryckiewicz & Piotr Mielus & Karolina Skorulska & Malgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Does a bank levy increase frictions on the interbank market?," Working Papers 2018-033, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.