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The 2007 Subprime Market Crisis Through the Lens of European Central Bank Auctions for Short‐Term Funds

  • Nuno Cassola
  • Ali Hortaçsu
  • Jakub Kastl

In this paper we study European banks’ demand for short-term funds during the 2007 subprime market crisis. We use bidding data from the European Central Bank’s auctions for one-week loans. Through a model of bidding, we show that bank behavior reflects the cost of obtaining short-term funds elsewhere as well as a strategic response to other bidders. We find considerable heterogeneity across banks in their willingness to pay for short-term funds supplied in these auctions. Accounting for the strategic component is important: while a naive interpretation of the raw bidding data may suggest that virtually all banks suffered a dramatic increase in the cost of obtaining funds in the interbank market, we find that for about one third of the banks, the change in bidding behavior was simply a strategic response. Using a complementary dataset, we also find that bank pre-turmoil liquidity costs, as estimated by our model, are predictive of their post-turmoil liquidity costs, and that there is considerable heterogeneity in these costs with respect to the country-of-origin. Finally, among the publicly traded banks, the willingness to pay for short-term funds in the second half of 2007 are predictive of stock prices in late 2008.

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Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 81 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
Pages: 1309-1345

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:81:y:2013:i:4:p:1309-1345
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  1. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Burcu Duygan-Bump & José Fillat & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2008. "Looking behind the aggregates: a reply to “Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008”," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU08-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2004. "Bidding and Performance in Repo Auctions: Evidence from ECB Open Market Operations," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9878h0kn, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  3. Arnold, Lutz G., 2005. "On the Possibility of Credit Rationing in the Stiglitz-Weiss Model," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 403, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
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  6. François-Louis Michaud & Christian Upper, 2008. "What drives interbank rates? Evidence from the Libor panel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  7. Acharya, Viral V & Schnabl, Philipp & Suarez, Gustavo, 2012. "Securitization Without Risk Transfer," CEPR Discussion Papers 8769, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Tapking, Jens, 2009. "Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets," Working Paper Series 1025, European Central Bank.
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  10. Kastl, Jakub, 2012. "On the properties of equilibria in private value divisible good auctions with constrained bidding," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 339-352.
  11. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Hirsch, Astrid & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "Bidding behaviour in the ECB’s main refinancing operations during the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1052, European Central Bank.
  12. Athey, Susan & Haile, Philip A., 2007. "Nonparametric Approaches to Auctions," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 60 Elsevier.
  13. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., . "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  14. Ewerhart, Christian & Tapking, Jens, 2008. "Repo markets, counterparty risk and the 2007/2008 liquidity crisis," Working Paper Series 0909, European Central Bank.
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