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Estimating first-price auctions with an unknown number of bidders: A misclassification approach

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  • An, Yonghong
  • Hu, Yingyao
  • Shum, Matthew

Abstract

In this paper, we consider nonparametric identification and estimation of first-price auction models when N*, the number of potential bidders, is unknown to the researcher, but observed by bidders. Exploiting results from the recent econometric literature on models with misclassification error, we develop a nonparametric procedure for recovering the distribution of bids conditional on the unknown N*. Monte Carlo results illustrate that the procedure works well in practice. We present illustrative evidence from a dataset of procurement auctions, which shows that accounting for the unobservability of N* can lead to economically meaningful differences in the estimates of bidders' profit margins.

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  • An, Yonghong & Hu, Yingyao & Shum, Matthew, 2010. "Estimating first-price auctions with an unknown number of bidders: A misclassification approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 328-341, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:157:y:2010:i:2:p:328-341
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    Cited by:

    1. Lamy, Laurent, 2012. "The econometrics of auctions with asymmetric anonymous bidders," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 113-132.
    2. Fang, Hanming & Tang, Xun, 2014. "Inference of bidders’ risk attitudes in ascending auctions with endogenous entry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 198-216.
    3. D’Haultfœuille, Xavier & Février, Philippe, 2015. "Identification of mixture models using support variations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 70-82.
    4. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:57:p:5740-5752 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:econom:v:200:y:2017:i:2:p:154-168 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yonghong An & Michael R. Baye & Yingyao Hu & John Morgan & Matt Shum, 2010. "Horizontal Mergers of Online Firms: Structural Estimation and Competitive Effects," Economics Working Paper Archive 564, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    7. Jong-Rong Chen & Kong-Pin Chen & Chien-Fu Chou & Ching-I Huang, 2013. "A Dynamic Model of Auctions with Buy-It-Now: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 393-429, June.
    8. repec:eee:econom:v:200:y:2017:i:2:p:326-343 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:wly:japmet:v:32:y:2017:i:1:p:80-102 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hickman Brent R. & Hubbard Timothy P. & Sağlam Yiğit, 2012. "Structural Econometric Methods in Auctions: A Guide to the Literature," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 67-106, August.
    11. repec:eee:econom:v:200:y:2017:i:1:p:48-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2015. "The Role of Undisclosed Reserves in English Open Outcry Auctions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 375-402, June.
    13. Lorentziadis, Panos L., 2016. "Optimal bidding in auctions from a game theory perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(2), pages 347-371.
    14. Shneyerov, Artyom & Wong, Adam Chi Leung, 2011. "Identification in first-price and Dutch auctions when the number of potential bidders is unobservable," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 574-582, June.
    15. Yonghong An & Michael R. Baye & Yingyao Hu & John Morgan & Matt Shum, 2017. "Identification and Estimation of Online Price Competition With an Unknown Number of Firms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 80-102, January.
    16. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2017. "Geographical dispersion of consumer search behaviour," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(57), pages 5740-5752, December.
    17. Ruli Xiao, 2015. "Identification and Estimation of Incomplete Information Games with Multiple Equilibria," Caepr Working Papers 2015-007 Classification-F, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    18. Susanne M. Schennach, 2012. "Measurement error in nonlinear models - a review," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. Philippe Jehiel & Laurent Lamy, 2011. "Absolute auctions and secret reserve prices: Why are they used?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000316, David K. Levine.
    20. Merlo, Antonio & Tang, Xun, 2015. "Bargaining with Optimism: A Structural Analysis of Medical Malpractice Litigation," Working Papers 15-005, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    21. Matthijs R. Wildenbeest, 2011. "An empirical model of search with vertically differentiated products," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 42(4), pages 729-757, December.
    22. Yingyao Hu, 2015. "Microeconomic models with latent variables: applications of measurement error models in empirical industrial organization and labor economics," CeMMAP working papers CWP03/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    23. Joachim Freyberger & Bradley J. Larsen, 2017. "Identification in Ascending Auctions, with an Application to Digital Rights Management," NBER Working Papers 23569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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