Nach der Machtübernahme der Taliban in Afghanistan: Erfahrungen aus der Vergangenheit und erste Einschätzungen der Folgen für Migration und Integration

"Following the withdrawal of US and NATO troops and the seizure of power by the Taliban, it can be expected that the levels of persecution, political violence, and human rights violations will sharply increase in Afghanistan. Women and girls as well as ethnic and religious minorities are particularly vulnerable to restrictions of political and personal freedom. At the same time, a further deterioration of the economic situation may result in a severe food supply crisis in Afghanistan. In the past, Pakistan and Iran provided shelter for around 80 percent of the refugees from Afghanistan. However, changes in geopolitical agendas, deteriorating economic conditions, and growing anti-immigrant sentiments, led to a refusal of the Pakistani and Iranian governments to accept additional refugees from Afghanistan. This is also the case for the governments of most Ex-Soviet Union states in Central Asia and China. As a consequence, it would be unrealistic to assume that the political and humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan can be alleviated through the resettlement of refugees within the region and financial and technical assistance for neighbouring countries provided by the EU, the United States, and other high-income countries. Furthermore, refugee routes to Europe are almost entirely closed, so that an extensive inflow of refugees in European countries similar to the one of 2015 is unlikely to occur. The voluntary reception of persons exposed to particular risks is the only option for the EU, the United States, and other high-income countries to contribute to the protection of vulnerable groups against persecution and other human rights violations. Measures include the reception of local staff, the reception of other vulnerable groups, the expansion of resettlement programmes, and the extension of quotas for Afghan immigrants. Theoretically and practically, political coordination and a fair allocation of costs for the reception of refugee are likely to boost the willingness to accept additional refugees also within the neighbouring region. The reception of refugees is a humanitarian duty incurring costs. Such costs are contingent on the success and duration of the integration process. Although they were characterised by worse preconditions in terms of the level of education upon arrival, the result and length of the asylum procedure, and the access to integration courses and other integration programmes, the labour market integration of Afghan refugees was not worse than the one of other refugees in Germany. At the end of 2020, 40 percent of the Afghan population in Germany were employed, while the employment rate of the cohort of refugees that moved to Germany in 2015 is likely to have been slightly higher. The newly arriving Afghans will be characterised by better preconditions in terms of the level of education, German and foreign language skills than the refugees that arrived in previous years. In addition, they will have a more favourable legal status and access to integration programmes. Moreover, the integration architecture is better than it has been, for example, in 2015 and fewer people seeking protection are competing for scarce resources. In this light, a faster labour market and social integration as well as lower costs of integration can be anticipated." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))