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British Interest Rate Convergence between the US and Europe: A Recursive Cointegration Analysis

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  • Enzo Weber

Abstract

This paper addresses the question of the British state of convergence towards the Euro area, compared to the USA. Economically, the analysis is based on dependences in the money and capital markets, namely the uncovered interest parity (UIP) and the expectation hypothesis of the term structure (EHT). The econometric procedure consists of backward recursive calculations carried out in a cointegration framework. As the evidence for the single parities remains unconvincing, UIP and EHT are combined in a common model. Generally, the results are in favour of a growing British integration into the European Currency Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Enzo Weber, 2006. "British Interest Rate Convergence between the US and Europe: A Recursive Cointegration Analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-005, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-005
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    Cited by:

    1. Adeline Bachellerie & Jérôme Héricourt & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "From various degrees of trade to various degrees of financial integration: What do interest rates have to say?," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 64(03), pages 365-402, December.
    2. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2021. "Testing for UIP: Nonlinearities, Monetary Announcements and Interest Rate Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9027, CESifo.
    3. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Testing for UIP-Type Relationships: Nonlinearities, Monetary Announcements and Interest Rate Expectations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 705-749, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nominal Convergence; Cointegration; UIP; Term Structure; Euro Area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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