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Vertical Trade and China's Export Dynamics

  • Wei Liao

    (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Kang Shi

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Zhiwei Zhang

    (China International Capital Corporation)

This paper examines how China's exports are affected by exchange rate shocks from countries who supply intermediate inputs to China. We build a simple small open economy model with intermediate goods trade to show that due to the intraregional trade in intermediate goods, a devaluation of other Asian currencies does not necessarily damage China's exports, as imported intermediate goods could become cheaper. This channel through the cost of intermediate goods depends critically on the share of intermediate goods used in China's export goods production and the degree of exchange rate pass-through in imported intermediate goods prices. If prices for intermediate goods are not very sticky, the effect through this channel could be large and China's exports could even benefit. We find the above findings do not depend on China's choice of currency invoicing between RMB and the US dollar or the choice between fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes.

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 102010.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:102010
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  1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  2. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2000. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange Rate Flexibility," NBER Working Papers 7665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. BAAK, SaangJoon, 2008. "The bilateral real exchange rates and trade between China and the U.S," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 117-127, June.
  13. KANG, Kichun, 2008. "How much have been the export products changed from homogeneous to differentiated? Evidence from China, Japan, and Korea," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 128-137, June.
  14. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Liu, Zheng, 2006. "Sellers' local currency pricing or buyers' local currency pricing: does it matter for international welfare analysis?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1183-1213, July.
  15. Shaghil Ahmed, 2009. "Are Chinese exports sensitive to changes in the exchange rate?," International Finance Discussion Papers 987, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Kalina Manova & Zhiwei Zhang, 2009. "China's Exporters and Importers: Firms, Products and Trade Partners," NBER Working Papers 15249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. XING, Yuqing, 2006. "Why is China so attractive for FDI? The role of exchange rates," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 198-209.
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