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A general equilibrium analysis of the inflationary impact of energy subsidies reform in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Hossein Mirshojaeian Hosseini
  • Shinji Kaneko

    (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University)

Abstract

Iran has suffered ever-increasing domestic energy consumption mostly due to its price controlling policy. If the trend continues, it will become a pure importer in the following decades. To avoid that unlucky fate, Iran started the energy subsidies reform on December 2010. It increased domestic energy and agricultural prices up to 20 times, making it the first major oil-exporting country to reduce substantially implicit energy subsidies. The paper studies the inflationary impact of the energy subsidies reform on different non-energy sectors and urban and rural households in Iran. For this purpose, the input-output price model of Iran is made and energy cross-price elasticities of non-energy sectors are derived. The results evidence the tremendous effects of the complete reform on the production and consumption prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Mirshojaeian Hosseini & Shinji Kaneko, 2012. "A general equilibrium analysis of the inflationary impact of energy subsidies reform in Iran," IDEC DP2 Series 2-8, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
  • Handle: RePEc:hir:idecdp:2-8
    as

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    File URL: http://ir.lib.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/files/public/32210/20141016185530813346/IDEC-DP2_02-8.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larsen, Bjorn & Shah, Anwar & DEC, 1992. "World fossil fuel subsidies and global carbon emissions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1002, The World Bank.
    2. Liu, Hong-Tao & Guo, Ju-E & Qian, Dong & Xi, You-Min, 2009. "Comprehensive evaluation of household indirect energy consumption and impacts of alternative energy policies in China by input-output analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3194-3204, August.
    3. Kangni Kpodar & David Coady & Moataz El-Said & Robert Gillingham & Paulo Medas & David Newhouse, 2006. "The Magnitude and Distribution of Fuel Subsidies: Evidence from Bolivia, Ghana, Jordan, Mali, and Sri Lanka," Post-Print hal-00130176, HAL.
    4. Llop, Maria, 2008. "Economic impact of alternative water policy scenarios in the Spanish production system: An input-output analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 288-294, December.
    5. Suzuki, Kengo & Uchiyama, Yohji, 2010. "Quantifying the risk of an increase in the prices of non-energy products by combining the portfolio and input-output approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5867-5877, October.
    6. Hesham AlShehabi, Omar, 2012. "Energy and labour reform: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 441-459.
    7. Birol, F & Aleagha, AV & Ferroukhi, R, 1995. "The economic impact of subsidy phase out in oil exporting developing countries: a case study of Algeria, Iran and Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 209-215, March.
    8. Jesper Jensen & David Tarr, 2014. "Trade, Exchange Rate, and Energy Pricing Reform in Iran: Potentially Large Efficiency Effects and Gains to the Poor," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 13, pages 307-326 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy subsidies reform; Production and consumption prices; Iran; Input-output price model; Decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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