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El Shock de los Precios del Petróleo en América Central: Implicancias Fiscales y Energéticas

Author

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  • Daniel Artana
  • Fernando Navajas
  • Marcelo Catena

Abstract

Se estudian las implicancias fiscales y energéticas de la escalada en los precios del petróleo estimando efectos directos e indirectos. Dado que las economías se hallan en una fase expansiva, estimamos, un impacto “latente”sobre el PIB, respecto de las condiciones iniciales (año 2003), que a su vez lleva a una pérdida latente en la recaudación fiscal del 0. 7% PIB promedio entre países. A diferencia de este efecto latente, la perdida directa observada en la recaudación de impuestos a los hidrocarburos se estima en 0. 4% del PIB, también con diferencias entre países. Adicionalmente, los subsidios explícitos varían según el país pero en promedio representan el 1% del PIB. En suma, la combinación de efectos fiscales directos e indirectos promedio entre países de la escalada en los precios del petróleo se estima en un 1. 4% del PIB para el período 2003-06 (que se eleva a 2. 1% si se consideran los efectos “latentes”). Luego se examina la evidencia sobre el modo de intervención en la formación de precios y en el grado de “acolchonamiento” de impuestos a los combustibles de los distintos países. El mayor o menor traslado del shock a los precios domésticos de los combustibles derivo en dificultades diversas que emergieron en el sector eléctrico y de transporte, dando lugar a respuestas en materia de formación de precios, impuestos y subsidios. Finalmente se discuten las estrategias basadas en otros mecanismos posibles como los fondos de estabilización y se hacen algunas sugerencias generales y por país derivadas de la evidencia encontrada.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Artana & Fernando Navajas & Marcelo Catena, 2007. "El Shock de los Precios del Petróleo en América Central: Implicancias Fiscales y Energéticas," Research Department Publications 4556, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4556
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Artana & Wendell Thomas & Liliana Rojas-Suárez & Fernando Navajas & Juan Luis Bour & Christopher Vignoles & Dennis Brown & Fidel Jaramillo & Deryck Omar & Rolph Balgobin & Anneke Jessen & Carlo, 2006. "From Growth to Prosperity: Policy Perspectives for Trinidad and Tobago," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 34358 edited by Liliana Rojas-Suárez & Carlos Elías, February.
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    4. Mr. David Coady & Mr. Taimur Baig & Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro & Mr. Amine Mati, 2007. "Domestic Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies: Recent Developments and Reform Strategies," IMF Working Papers 2007/071, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Kevin Fletcher & Ms. Gabriela Inchauste, 2002. "Issues in Domestic Petroleum Pricing in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/140, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Brousseau,Eric & Glachant,Jean-Michel (ed.), 2002. "The Economics of Contracts," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521893138.
    7. repec:idb:brikps:34358 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Porto & Francisco Pizzi, 2018. "Transmisión del Precio Internacional del Petróleo a los Precios Internos del Petróleo y los Combustibles en la Argentina," Department of Economics, Working Papers 118, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    2. Alberto Porto & Francisco Pizzi, 2018. "Transmisión del Precio Internacional del Petróleo a los Precios Internos del Petróleo y los Combustibles en la Argentina," IIE, Working Papers 118, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    3. Hancevic, Pedro & Cont, Walter & Navajas, Fernando, 2016. "Energy populism and household welfare," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 464-474.
    4. Tapia Herbas, Mauricio, 2013. "Determinación de un adecuado precio del gas natural para el sector eléctrico boliviano," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 19, pages 99-123, Mayo.
    5. Alaimo, Veronica & Lopez, Humberto, 2008. "Oil intensities and oil prices : evidence for Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4640, The World Bank.

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