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Perceived Temperature, Trust and Civil Unrest in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Aboyadana

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde and School of Education, University of Glasgow)

  • Marco Alfano

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde and Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, University College London)

Abstract

This paper documents a significant effect of short-term temperature fluctuations on attitudes towards institutions and on civil unrest in Africa. Combining attitudinal survey and climate data, we calculate temperature as perceived by respondents via an algorithm that combines different meteorological variables. The results show that daily temperature anomalies at the location of interview increase self-reported mistrust in government and intentions to vote for opposition parties. Effects are particularly strong in poor countries where temperature anomalies also increase self-reported intentions to protest. Accordingly, we find that temperature anomalies also increase incidences of protests and riots. Evidence suggests that effects are not driven by changes in agricultural incomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Aboyadana & Marco Alfano, 2021. "Perceived Temperature, Trust and Civil Unrest in Africa," HiCN Working Papers 344, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:344
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Baako-Amponsah, Josephine & Stadelmann, David & Wild, Frederik, 2026. "Whether it’s weather or climate: Temperature and individual deprivation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • N57 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Africa; Oceania

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