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The Credit Market and the Determinants of Credit Crunches: An Agent Based Modeling Approach

Author

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  • Holmberg, Ulf

    () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

Abstract

This paper presents a credit market model and finds, using an agent based modeling approach, that credit crunches have a tendency to occur; even when credit markets are almost entirely transparent in the absence of external shocks. We find evidence supporting the asset deterioration hypothesis and results that emphasize the importance of accurate firm quality estimates. In addition, we find that an increase in the debt’s time to maturity, homogenous expected default rates and a conservative lending approach, reduces the probability of a credit crunch. Thus, our results suggest some up till now partially overlooked components contributing to the financial stability of an economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmberg, Ulf, 2012. "The Credit Market and the Determinants of Credit Crunches: An Agent Based Modeling Approach," Umeå Economic Studies 836, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0836
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiesa, Gabriella, 1998. "Information production, banking industry structure and credit allocation," Research in Economics, Elsevier, pages 409-430.
    2. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    3. Gregory F. Udell, 2009. "How will a credit crunch affect small business finance?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar6.
    4. Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2006. "Agent-Based Computational Economics: A Constructive Approach to Economic Theory," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 831-880 Elsevier.
    5. Martin Andreasen & Marcelo Ferman & Pawel Zabczyk, 2013. "The Business Cycle Implications of Banks' Maturity Transformation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 581-600, October.
    6. Allen, Franklin, 1990. "The market for information and the origin of financial intermediation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, pages 3-30.
    7. Broecker, Thorsten, 1990. "Credit-Worthiness Tests and Interbank Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 429-452, March.
    8. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stability; banking; lending; screening; truncation;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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