The Relation between the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread and the Real Economy: Stable or TimeVarying?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "The relation between the corporate bond-yield spread and the real economy: Stable or time-varying?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
References listed on IDEAS
- Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009.
"Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
- Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 81-156.
- Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016.
"The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time-Varying FAVAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 8341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "The changing international transmission of financial shocks: evidence from a classical time-varying FAVAR," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005.
"Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, "undated". "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Jon Faust & Simon Gilchrist & Jonathan H. Wright & Egon Zakrajšsek, 2013.
"Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1501-1519, December.
- Jon Faust & Simon Gilchrist & Jonathan H. Wright & Egon Zakrajsek, 2011. "Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach," NBER Working Papers 16725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jon Faust & Simon Gilchrist & Jonathan H. Wright & Egon Zakrajšek, 2012. "Credit spreads as predictors of real-time economic activity: a Bayesian Model-Averaging approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Esteban Prieto & Sandra Eickmeier & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016.
"Time Variation in Macro‐Financial Linkages,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1215-1233, November.
- Prieto, Esteban & Eickmeier, Sandra & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Time variation in macro-financial linkages," Discussion Papers 13/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2013. "Time Variation in Macro-Financial Linkages," CEPR Discussion Papers 9436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Friedman, Benjamin Morton, 1998. "Indicator Properties of the Paper—Bill Spread: Lessons from Recent Experience," Scholarly Articles 4554251, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998.
"Indicator Properties Of The Paper-Bill Spread: Lessons From Recent Experience,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 34-44, February.
- Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1994. "Indicator Properties of the Paper-Bill Spread: Lessons from Recent Experiences," NBER Working Papers 4969, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1994. "Indicator properties of the paper-bill spread: lessons from recent experience," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012.
"Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2018.
"Bayesian model comparison for time‐varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, June.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Bayesian model comparison for time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Q. Farooq Akram & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the Norwegian Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 407-434, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 81-156.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Apergis Nicholas, 2021. "Forecasting US overseas travelling with univariate and multivariate models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 963-976, September.
- Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023.
"Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
- Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances," Working Papers 2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Sedegah Kordzo & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "A Review of the Impact of External Shocks on Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Non-WAEMU Countries," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 31(3), pages 37-59, September.
- Kiss, Tamás & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Fat tails in leading indicators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
- Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
- Edvinsson, Rodney & Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Does Money Growth Predict Inflation? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions Using Four Centuries of Data," Working Papers 2023:3, Örebro University, School of Business.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023.
"Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
- Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances," Working Papers 2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Ellington, Michael & Florackis, Chris & Milas, Costas, 2017.
"Liquidity shocks and real GDP growth: Evidence from a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 93-117.
- Michael Ellington & Chris Florackis & Costas Milas, 2016. "Liquidity Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Evidence from a Bayesian Time-varying Parameter VAR," Working Paper series 16-28, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2015.
"Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 100-115.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Robert J. Tetlow, 2012. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2014. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Working Paper Series 1728, European Central Bank.
- Robert Tetlow & Kirstin Hubrich, 2013. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," 2013 Meeting Papers 571, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "A hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR analysis of Okun’s law in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
- Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2022.
"A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
- Tino Berger & Julia Richter & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Financial factors and the business cycle," CAMA Working Papers 2020-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Tino Berger & Julia Richter & Benjamin Wong, 2021. "A Unified Approach for Jointly Estimating the Business and Financial Cycle, and the Role of Financial Factors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013.
"Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
- Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2024.
"Advances in nowcasting economic activity: The role of heterogeneous dynamics and fat tails,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
- Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2023. "Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: The Role of Heterogeneous Dynamics and Fat Tails," CEPR Discussion Papers 17800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2022.
"A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
- Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," Working Papers 02/2021, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
- Tino Berger & Julia Richter & Benjamin Wong, 2021. "A Unified Approach for Jointly Estimating the Business and Financial Cycle, and the Role of Financial Factors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Liao, Wenting & Ma, Jun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2024. "Commodity returns co-movement, uncertainty shocks, and the US dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Chatterjee, Ujjal Kanti & Bazzana, Flavio, 2024. "Do corporate credit spreads predict the real economy?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
- Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2024.
"Revisiting the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks,"
The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(329), pages 234-259, June.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2021. "Revisiting the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2021-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2021. "Revisiting the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2021-02 Classification-E3, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
- Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
- Caldara, Dario & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Gilchrist, Simon & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2016.
"The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 185-207.
- Dario Caldara & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1166, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dario Caldara & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 22058, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2019.
"Large time‐varying parameter VARs: A nonparametric approach,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1027-1049, November.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2016. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs: A Non-Parametric Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11560, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2017. "Large time-varying parameter VARs: a non-parametric approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1122, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Andrejs Zlobins, 2021. "On the Time-varying Effects of the ECB's Asset Purchases," Working Papers 2021/02, Latvijas Banka.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
- Ramey, V.A., 2016.
"Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162,
Elsevier.
- Ramey, VA, 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5mb353t2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Valerie A. Ramey, 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," NBER Working Papers 21978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015.
"Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads,"
Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-54.
- Jari Hännikäinen, 2014. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Working Papers 1495, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
- Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," MPRA Paper 56737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
More about this item
Keywords
Bayesian VAR; Time-varying parameters; Stochastic volatility; Model selection;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-MAC-2019-10-07 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-ORE-2019-10-07 (Operations Research)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2019_007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ieoruse.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.