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The relation between the corporate bond-yield spread and the real economy: Stable or time-varying?

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  • Karlsson, Sune
  • Österholm, Pär

Abstract

In this paper we assess whether the relation between the corporate bond-yield spread and the real economy has been stable over time. Using quarterly US data from 1953Q1 to 2018Q2, we estimate Bayesian VAR models which allow for drifting parameters and/or stochastic volatility and conduct formal model selection in a Bayesian setting. Our results indicate that the relation between the variables has been stable; we do, however, find strong support for stochastic volatility. We conclude that the corporate bond-yield spread’s usefulness for predicting real economic activity has not changed to a relevant extent after the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "The relation between the corporate bond-yield spread and the real economy: Stable or time-varying?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:186:y:2020:i:c:s0165176519304458
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108883
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    1. Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    2. Apergis Nicholas, 2021. "Forecasting US overseas travelling with univariate and multivariate models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 963-976, September.
    3. Kiss, Tamás & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Fat tails in leading indicators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Edvinsson, Rodney & Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Does Money Growth Predict Inflation? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions Using Four Centuries of Data," Working Papers 2023:3, Örebro University, School of Business.
    5. Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
    6. Sedegah Kordzo & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "A Review of the Impact of External Shocks on Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Non-WAEMU Countries," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 31(3), pages 37-59, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; Time-varying parameters; Stochastic volatility; Model selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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