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Risky Choices of Poor People: Comparing Risk Preference Elicitation Approaches in Field Experiments

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  • Holden , Stein

    (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)

Abstract

This paper studies the risk preferences of poor rural households in Malawi and compares the Holt and Laury (2002) (HL) multiple price list approach with hypothetical real-world framing and monetary incentive-compatible framing with the Tanaka, Camerer and Nguyen (2010) (TCN) monetary framing approach to elicit prospect theory parameters. The consistency of the results, the role of and potential bias attributable to measurement error, and correlations with socioeconomic characteristics are assessed. The study shows that measurement error can lead to upward bias in risk aversion estimates and over-weighting of low probabilities. The hypothetical real–world HL framing experiments are associated with higher sensitivity to background variation such as exposure to a recent drought shock and distance to markets/poor market access.

Suggested Citation

  • Holden , Stein, 2014. "Risky Choices of Poor People: Comparing Risk Preference Elicitation Approaches in Field Experiments," CLTS Working Papers 10/14, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, revised 10 Oct 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2014_010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. Mette Wik & Tewodros Aragie Kebede & Olvar Bergland & Stein Holden, 2004. "On the measurement of risk aversion from experimental data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(21), pages 2443-2451.
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    Cited by:

    1. Holden, S.T. & Quiggin, J., 2018. "Probability Weighting and Fertilizer Use in a State-Contingent Framework," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277355, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Holden , Stein T. & Quiggin, John, 2017. "Probability Weighting and Input Use Intensity in a State-Contingent Framework," CLTS Working Papers 8/17, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, revised 21 Oct 2019.
    3. Holden , Stein T. & Quiggin, John, 2015. "Climate risk and state-contingent technology adoption: The role of risk preferences and probability weighting," Working Paper Series 15-2015, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business.
    4. Holden , Stein & Fischer, Monica, 2015. "Can Adoption of Improved Maize Varieties Help Smallholder Farmers Adapt to Drought? Evidence from Malawi," CLTS Working Papers 1/15, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, revised 11 Oct 2019.
    5. Stein Holden & Monica Fisher, 2015. "Subsidies promote use of drought tolerant maize varieties despite variable yield performance under smallholder environments in Malawi," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 7(6), pages 1225-1238, December.
    6. Stein T. Holden & John Quiggin, 2017. "Climate risk and state-contingent technology adoption: shocks, drought tolerance and preferences," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(2), pages 285-308.
    7. Holden, Stein T., 2015. "Risk Preferences, Shocks and Technology Adoption: Farmers’ Responses to Drought Risk," CLTS Working Papers 3/15, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, revised 11 Oct 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expected utility theory; prospect theory; risk preferences; loss aversion; probability weighting; field experiment; multiple price lists; measurement error; Malawi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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