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Labor Supply Responses to New Rural Pension Insurances in China: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Listed author(s):
  • Chen, Zeyuan

    ()

    (Department of Economic History, Lund University)

  • Bengtsson, Tommy

    ()

    (Department of Economic History, Lund University)

  • Helgertz, Jonas

    ()

    (Department of Economic History, Lund University)

Registered author(s):

    Transitioning into retirement is an under-researched phenomenon in developing countries. Largely, this is linked to a predominance of contexts where – in particular – the rural population remains outside the coverage of any formal pension system. In 2008, China introduced the New Rural Social Pension (NRSP), a program which by now covers the majority of the Chinese rural elderly. This paper examines the effects of the NRSP on the labor supply of the elderly in rural China. As pension benefit eligibility at the time of its implementation is conditional on age, a regression discontinuity design is applied to investigate the casual effect of the receipt of pension benefits on labor supply. Furthermore, as the NRSP is neither means-tested nor conditions on retirement, it induces a pure income effect on employment. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, a nationally representative data set, we find that the receipt of pension benefits increases the probability of retirement among the rural elderly by around 15%.

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    Paper provided by Department of Economic History, Lund University in its series Lund Papers in Economic History with number 139.

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    Length: 40 pages
    Date of creation: 20 Oct 2015
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0139
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    Department of Economic History, Lund University, Box 7083, S-220 07 Lund, Sweden

    Phone: +46 46-222 00 00
    Fax: +46 46-13 15 85
    Web page: http://www.ekh.lu.se/

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    1. Victoria Hosegood & Anne Case & Cally Ardington, 2009. "Labor Supply Responses to Large Social Transfers: Longitudinal Evidence from South Africa," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 22-48, January.
    2. Juarez Laura, 2010. "The Effect of an Old-Age Demogrant on the Labor Supply and Time Use of the Elderly and Non-Elderly in Mexico," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, June.
    3. Giles, John T. & Wang, Dewen & Cai, Wei, 2011. "The Labor Supply and Retirement Behavior of China's Older Workers and Elderly in Comparative Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 6088, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Danzer, Alexander M., 2010. "Retirement Responses to a Generous Pension Reform: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Eastern Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 4726, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Lemieux, Thomas & Milligan, Kevin, 2008. "Incentive effects of social assistance: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 807-828, February.
    6. Vimal Ranchhod, 2006. "The Effect Of The South African Old Age Pension On Labour Supply Of The Elderly," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 725-744, December.
    7. Kaushal, Neeraj, 2014. "How Public Pension affects Elderly Labor Supply and Well-being: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 214-225.
    8. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
    9. Dwayne Benjamin & Loren Brandt & Jia-Zhueng Fan, 2003. "Ceaseless Toil? Health and Labor Supply of the Elderly in Rural China," Working Papers benjamin-03-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    10. Krueger, Alan B & Pischke, Jorn-Steffen, 1992. "The Effect of Social Security on Labor Supply: A Cohort Analysis of the Notch Generation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(4), pages 412-437, October.
    11. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    12. Dora L. Costa, 1995. "Pensions and Retirement: Evidence from Union Army Veterans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 297-319.
    13. Giles, John & Wang, Dewen & Zhao, Changbao, 2010. "Can China's rural elderly count on support from adult children ? implications of rural-to-urban migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5510, The World Bank.
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