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Scarring effects of the first labour market experience: A sibling based analysis

The paper studies the relationship between teenagers’ first labour market experience and subsequent labour market performance using data on all Swedish youths graduating from vocational high school programmes in 1991–94. Sibling fixed-effects combined with detailed data on high school programmes, grades and work experience during high school are used in order to identify the causal long-run effects of experiencing unemployment subsequent to graduation. The results show a 3 percentage-points increase in the unemployment probability and a 17 % reduction in annual earnings after 5 years due to post-graduation unemployment. The results thus show that teenage labour market failure is in fact costly even though most teenagers have relatively short unemployment spells.

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Paper provided by IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy in its series Working Paper Series with number 2004:14.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 10 Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2004_014
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  1. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-83, August.
  2. Knights, Stephen & Harris, Mark N & Loundes, Joanne, 2002. "Dynamic Relationships in the Australian Labour Market: Heterogeneity and State Dependence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 284-98, September.
  3. Häkkinen, Iida, 2004. "Working while enrolled in a university: Does it pay?," Working Paper Series 2004:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  4. Muhleisen, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1994. "A panel analysis of job changes and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 793-801, April.
  5. Ekström, Erika, 2002. "The value of a third year in upper secondary vocational education - Evidence from a piloting scheme," Working Paper Series 2002:23, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  6. Stutzer, Alois & Lalive, Rafael, 2001. "The Role of Social Work Norms in Job Searching and Subjective Well-Being," IZA Discussion Papers 300, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Bound, John & Solon, Gary, 1999. "Double trouble: on the value of twins-based estimation of the return to schooling," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 169-182, April.
  8. Bruce C. Fallick, 1995. "A review of the recent empirical literature on displaced workers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Jonas Agell & Helge Bennmarker, 2002. "Wage Policy and Endogenous Wage Rigidity: A Representative View From the Inside," CESifo Working Paper Series 751, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Stefan Eriksson & Jonas Lagerström, 2006. "Competition between Employed and Unemployed Job Applicants: Swedish Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(3), pages 373-396, October.
  11. Eliason, Marcus & Storrie, Donald, 2004. "The Echo of Job Displacement," Working Papers in Economics 135, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  12. Andrew Clark & Yannis Georgellis & Peter Sanfey, 1999. "Scarring: The Psychological Impact of Past Unemployment," Studies in Economics 9903, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  13. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
  14. Bertil Holmlund, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of Swedish Unemployment," CESifo Working Paper Series 918, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Hedström, Peter & Kolm, Ann-Sofie & Åberg, Yvonne, 2003. "Social Interactions and Unemployment," Working Paper Series 2003:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  16. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F626-53, November.
  17. Thomas A. Mroz & Timothy H. Savage, 2006. "The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
  18. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2002. "State Dependence in Unemployment Incidence: Evidence for British Men Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 630, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  19. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2001. "Is Unemployment Really Scarring? Effects of Unemployment Experiences on Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F585-606, November.
  20. Griliches, Zvi, 1979. "Sibling Models and Data in Economics: Beginnings of a Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S37-64, October.
  21. David T. Ellwood, 1982. "Teenage Unemployment: Permanent Scars or Temporary Blemishes?," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 349-390 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Beaudry, Paul & DiNardo, John, 1991. "The Effect of Implicit Contracts on the Movement of Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 665-88, August.
  23. Lori G. Kletzer, 1998. "Job Displacement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 115-136, Winter.
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