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Does the Black-Scholes formula work for electricity markets? A nonparametric approach

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Listed author(s):
  • Hjalmarsson, Erik

    ()

    (Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University)

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    Abstract

    Despite the high volatilities recorded for electricity prices, there seems to be little demand for options on electricity. One reason for the disinterest in electricity options could arise from uncertainty about how to price these options. This study uses recent econometric advances to nonparametrically estimate correct prices for electricity options and compare these to the Black-Scholes prices. The main finding is that although the nonparametric estimates deviate significantly from the Black-Scholes prices, it would be diffcult to find an alternative parametric model that performs better. Thus, from a practical viewpoint, the Black-Scholes prices appear to be the best available.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/2809
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    Paper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 101.

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    Length: 65 pages
    Date of creation: 31 Jul 2003
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0101
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden

    Phone: 031-773 10 00
    Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/

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    Keywords: Electricity markets; Nonparametric estimation; Option pricing;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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    1. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
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    7. Bandi, Federico & Moloche, Guillermo, 2008. "On the functional estimation of multivariate diffusion processes," MPRA Paper 43681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
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    11. Malcolm P. Baker & E. Scott Mayfield & John E. Parsons, 1998. "Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 115-148.
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    Cited by:

    1. Twomey, P. & Neuhoff, K., 2005. "Market Power and Technological Bias: The Case of Electricity Generation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0532, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Twomey, Paul & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2010. "Wind power and market power in competitive markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3198-3210, July.

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