Does the Black-Scholes formula work for electricity markets? A nonparametric approach
Despite the high volatilities recorded for electricity prices, there seems to be little demand for options on electricity. One reason for the disinterest in electricity options could arise from uncertainty about how to price these options. This study uses recent econometric advances to nonparametrically estimate correct prices for electricity options and compare these to the Black-Scholes prices. The main finding is that although the nonparametric estimates deviate significantly from the Black-Scholes prices, it would be diffcult to find an alternative parametric model that performs better. Thus, from a practical viewpoint, the Black-Scholes prices appear to be the best available.
|Date of creation:||31 Jul 2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden|
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1983. "A Simplified Jump Process for Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 53-65, March.
- Härdle, W.K., 1992.
"Applied Nonparametric Methods,"
1992-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- HÄRDLE, Wolfgang, 1992. "Applied nonparametric methods," CORE Discussion Papers 1992003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9206, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9204, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
- Gallant, A. Ronald & Hsu, Chien-Te & Tauchen, George, 2000.
"Using Daily Range Data to Calibrate Volatility Diffusions and Extract the Forward Integrated Variance,"
00-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- A. Ronald Gallant & Chien-Te Hsu & George Tauchen, 1999. "Using Daily Range Data To Calibrate Volatility Diffusions And Extract The Forward Integrated Variance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 617-631, November.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995.
"Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
- Bandi, Federico & Moloche, Guillermo, 2008. "On the functional estimation of multivariate diffusion processes," MPRA Paper 43681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Federico M. Bandi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2001.
"Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1332, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Federico M. Bandi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 241-283, January.
- Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
- Sanjiv R. Das, 1998. "Poisson-Guassian Processes and the Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 6631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oliver LINTON, "undated".
"Applied nonparametric methods,"
Statistic und Oekonometrie
9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
- Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
- Malcolm P. Baker & E. Scott Mayfield & John E. Parsons, 1998. "Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 115-148.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Andersson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.