IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Permanence of avoided deforestation in a Transamazon REDD+ initiative (Pará, Brazil)


  • Cauê Carrilho

    (USP - Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo)

  • Gabriela Demarchi

    (CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR], CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier)

  • Amy Duchelle

    (CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR])

  • Sven Wunder

    (CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR], EFI - European Forest Institute)

  • Carla Morsello

    (EACH - Escola de Artes Ciências e Humanidades - USP - Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo)


Rigorous impact evaluations of local REDD+ (reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) initiatives have shown some positive outcomes for forests, while wellbeing impacts have been mixed. However, will REDD+ outcomes persist over time after interventions have ended? Using quasi-experimental methods, we investigated the effects of one REDD+ initiative in the Brazilian Amazon on deforestation and people's well-being, including intra-community spillover effects (leakage). We then evaluated to what extent outcomes persisted after the initiative ended (permanence). This initiative combined Payments for Environmental Services (PES) with sustainable livelihood alternatives to reduce smallholder deforestation. Data came from face-to-face surveys with 113 households (treatment: 52; non-participant from treatment communities: 35; control: 46) in a three-datapoint panel design (2010, 2014 and 2019). Results indicate the REDD+ initiative conserved an average of 7.8% to 10.3% of forest cover per household. It also increased the probability of improving enrollees' wellbeing by 27-44%. We found no evidence for significant intra-community leakage. After the initiative ended, forest loss rebounded and perceived wellbeing declined – yet, importantly, past saved forest was not cleared. Our results therefore confirm what the theory and stylized evidence envisioned for temporal payments on activity-reducing (‘set-aside'): forest loss was successfully delayed, but not permanently eradicated.

Suggested Citation

  • Cauê Carrilho & Gabriela Demarchi & Amy Duchelle & Sven Wunder & Carla Morsello, 2022. "Permanence of avoided deforestation in a Transamazon REDD+ initiative (Pará, Brazil)," CEE-M Working Papers hal-03614704, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpceem:hal-03614704
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server:

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Amy E. Duchelle & Gabriela Simonet & William D. Sunderlin & Sven Wunder, 2018. "What is REDD+ achieving on the ground?," Post-Print hal-02623994, HAL.
    2. Jagger, Pamela & Rana, Pushpendra, 2017. "Using publicly available social and spatial data to evaluate progress on REDD+ social safeguards in Indonesia," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 59-69.
    3. Jan Börner & Dario Schulz & Sven Wunder & Alexander Pfaff, 2020. "The Effectiveness of Forest Conservation Policies and Programs," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 45-64, October.
    4. Olivier Deschenes & Kyle C. Meng, 2018. "Quasi-Experimental Methods in Environmental Economics: Opportunities and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 24903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gabriela Simonet & Julie Subervie & Driss Ezzine-de-Blas & Marina Cromberg & Amy E Duchelle, 2019. "Effectiveness of a REDD+ Project in Reducing Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(1), pages 211-229.
    6. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    7. Sims, Katharine R.E. & Alix-Garcia, Jennifer M., 2017. "Parks versus PES: Evaluating direct and incentive-based land conservation in Mexico," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 8-28.
    8. Ho, Daniel E. & Imai, Kosuke & King, Gary & Stuart, Elizabeth A., 2007. "Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 199-236, July.
    9. Hegde, Ravi & Bull, Gary Q., 2011. "Performance of an agro-forestry based Payments-for-Environmental-Services project in Mozambique: A household level analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 122-130.
    10. Sébastien Costedoat & Esteve Corbera & Driss Ezzine-de-Blas & Jordi Honey-Rosés & Kathy Baylis & Miguel Angel Castillo-Santiago, 2015. "How Effective Are Biodiversity Conservation Payments in Mexico?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Alberto Abadie & David Drukker & Jane Leber Herr & Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Implementing matching estimators for average treatment effects in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(3), pages 290-311, September.
    12. Correa, Juliano & Cisneros, Elías & Börner, Jan & Pfaff, Alexander & Costa, Marcelo & Rajão, Raoni, 2020. "Evaluating REDD+ at subnational level: Amazon fund impacts in Alta Floresta, Brazil," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    13. Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Under Exogeneity: A Review," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 4-29, February.
    14. Arild Angelsen, 2017. "REDD+ as Result-based Aid: General Lessons and Bilateral Agreements of Norway," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 237-264, May.
    15. Calle, Alicia, 2020. "Can short-term payments for ecosystem services deliver long-term tree cover change?," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    16. Birte Snilsveit & Jennifer Stevenson & Laurenz Langer & Natalie Tannous & Zafeer Ravat & Promise Nduku & Joshua Polanin & Ian Shemilt & John Eyers & Paul J. Ferraro, 2019. "Incentives for climate mitigation in the land use sector—the effects of payment for environmental services on environmental and socioeconomic outcomes in low‐ and middle‐income countries: A mixed‐meth," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), September.
    17. Uchida, Emi & Xu, Jintao & Xu, Zhigang & Rozelle, Scott, 2007. "Are the poor benefiting from China's land conservation program?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 593-620, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carrilho, Cauê D. & Demarchi, Gabriela & Duchelle, Amy E. & Wunder, Sven & Morsello, Carla, 2022. "Permanence of avoided deforestation in a Transamazon REDD+ project (Pará, Brazil)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    2. Arriagada, Rodrigo & Villaseñor, Adrián & Rubiano, Eliana & Cotacachi, David & Morrison, Judith, 2018. "Analysing the impacts of PES programmes beyond economic rationale: Perceptions of ecosystem services provision associated to the Mexican case," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 29(PA), pages 116-127.
    3. Blackman, Allen & Goff, Leonard & Rivera Planter, Marisol, 2018. "Does eco-certification stem tropical deforestation? Forest Stewardship Council certification in Mexico," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 306-333.
    4. Jones, Kelly W. & Avila Foucat, Sophie & Pischke, Erin C. & Salcone, Jacob & Torrez, David & Selfa, Theresa & Halvorsen, Kathleen E., 2019. "Exploring the connections between participation in and benefits from payments for hydrological services programs in Veracruz State, Mexico," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 32-42.
    5. Montoya-Zumaeta, Javier G. & Wunder, Sven & Tacconi, Luca, 2021. "Incentive-based conservation in Peru: Assessing the state of six ongoing PES and REDD+ initiatives," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Cisneros, Elías & Börner, Jan & Pagiola, Stefano & Wunder, Sven, 2022. "Impacts of conservation incentives in protected areas: The case of Bolsa Floresta, Brazil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. Liu, Zhaoyang & Kontoleon, Andreas, 2018. "Meta-Analysis of Livelihood Impacts of Payments for Environmental Services Programmes in Developing Countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 48-61.
    8. Moeltner, Klaus & Puri, Roshan & Johnston, Robert J., 2023. "Regression and matching in hedonic analysis: Empirical guidance for estimator choice," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335807, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Jones, Kelly W. & Muñoz Brenes, Carlos L. & Shinbrot, Xoco A. & López-Báez, Walter & Rivera-Castañeda, Andrómeda, 2018. "The influence of cash and technical assistance on household-level outcomes in payments for hydrological services programs in Chiapas, Mexico," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PA), pages 208-218.
    10. Špirić, Jovanka & Salinas-Melgoza, Miguel Angel & Merlo-Reyes, Ana & Ramírez, M. Isabel, 2023. "Estimating the causal effect of forestry programs on forest recovery in a REDD+ priority area in Michoacán, Mexico," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Fatema, Naureen, 2019. "Can land title reduce low-intensity interhousehold conflict incidences and associated damages in eastern DRC?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Li Liang & Greene Tom, 2013. "A Weighting Analogue to Pair Matching in Propensity Score Analysis," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 215-234, July.
    13. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Oberhofer, Harald & Vincelette, Gallina Andronova, 2014. "Firm growth and productivity in Belarus: New empirical evidence from the machine building industry," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 726-738.
    14. Abbott, Joshua K. & Klaiber, H. Allen, 2011. "The Value Of Water As An Urban Club Good: A Matching Approach To Hoa-Provided Lakes," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103781, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Michael Lechner & Anthony Strittmatter, 2019. "Practical procedures to deal with common support problems in matching estimation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 193-207, February.
    16. Sophie Guthmuller & Florence Jusot & Jérôme Wittwer & Caroline Despres, 2010. "Le recours à l’Aide complémentaire santé : les enseignements d’une expérimentation sociale à Lille," Working Papers DT36, IRDES institut for research and information in health economics, revised Dec 2010.
    17. Goller, Daniel & Lechner, Michael & Moczall, Andreas & Wolff, Joachim, 2020. "Does the estimation of the propensity score by machine learning improve matching estimation? The case of Germany's programmes for long term unemployed," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    19. Liao, Minli & White, Kevin R., 2014. "Post-permanency service needs, service utilization, and placement discontinuity for kinship versus non-kinship families," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 370-378.
    20. Tübbicke Stefan, 2022. "Entropy Balancing for Continuous Treatments," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 71-89, January.

    More about this item


    conservation incentives; emission reductions; additionality; climate change mitigation; impact assessment.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpceem:hal-03614704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laurent Garnier (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.