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Permanence of avoided deforestation in a Transamazon REDD+ project (Pará, Brazil)

Author

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  • Cauê Carrilho

    (USP - Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo, CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR])

  • Gabriela Demarchi

    (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR])

  • Amy Duchelle

    (CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR])

  • Sven Wunder

    (CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR], EFI - European Forest Institute)

  • Carla Morsello

    (EACH - Escola de Artes Ciências e Humanidades - USP - Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo, USP - Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo)

Abstract

Rigorous impact evaluations of local REDD+ (reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) initiatives have shown some positive outcomes for forests, while well-being impacts have been mixed. However, will REDD+ outcomes persist over time after interventions have ended? Using quasi-experimental methods, we investigated the effects of one REDD+ project in the Brazilian Amazon on deforestation and people's well-being, including intra-community spillover effects (leakage). We then evaluated to what extent outcomes persisted after the project ended (permanence). This project combined Payments for Environmental Services (PES) with sustainable livelihood alternatives to reduce smallholder deforestation. Data came from face-to-face surveys with 113 households (treatment: 52; non-participant from treatment communities: 35; control: 46) in a three-datapoint panel design (2010, 2014 and 2019). Results indicate the REDD+ project conserved an average of 7.8% to 10.3% of forest cover per household and increased the probability of improving enrollees' well-being by 27–44%. We found no evidence for significant intra-community leakage. After the project ended, forest loss rebounded and perceived well-being declined – yet, importantly, past saved forest was not cleared. Therefore, our results confirm what the theory and stylized evidence envisioned for temporal payments on activity-reducing (‘set-aside'): forest loss was successfully delayed but not permanently eradicated.

Suggested Citation

  • Cauê Carrilho & Gabriela Demarchi & Amy Duchelle & Sven Wunder & Carla Morsello, 2022. "Permanence of avoided deforestation in a Transamazon REDD+ project (Pará, Brazil)," Post-Print hal-03763421, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03763421
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107568
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    Cited by:

    1. Mandy Malan & Rachel Carmenta & Elisabeth Gsottbauer & Paul Hofman & Andreas Kontoleon & Tom Swinfield & Maarten Voors, 2024. "Evaluating the impacts of a large-scale voluntary REDD+ project in Sierra Leone," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(2), pages 120-129, February.
    2. Kemigisha, Esther & Babweteera, Fred & Mugisha, Johnny & Angelsen, Arild, 2023. "Payment for environmental services to reduce deforestation: Do the positive effects last?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. Izquierdo-Tort, Santiago & Alatorre, Andrea & Shapiro-Garza, Elizabeth & Corbera, Esteve & Deschamps-Lomelí, Jimena & Ávila-Foucat, Véronique Sophie & Carabias, Julia & Dupras, Jérôme & Kolinjivadi, V, 2025. "Payments for ecosystem services in Mexico: Two decades of progress and challenges between research and practice," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Bai, Yunxiao & Chen, Cheng & Li, Xiaoshuang & Liu, Moucheng, 2024. "Factors influencing the progressive adoption of integrated rice-fish systems by farmers and its relapse," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    5. Loris André & Julio Ramos-Tallada, 2025. "Green Finance and Deforestation Reduction in Brazil: a PVAR Analysis of the Amazon Fund," Working papers 998, Banque de France.

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