IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/halshs-01685748.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Évolution de l’usage des modes de transport - Analyse des facteurs explicatifs : application à l’agglomération lyonnaise

Author

Listed:
  • Mirkan Geyik

    (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Patrick Bonnel

    (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Après une progression continue de l'usage de la voiture dans la plupart des conurbations de l'OCDE, on assiste dans beaucoup de pays à une inversion de tendance avec une plus ou moins grande réduction de la place de la voiture selon les indicateurs retenus pour la mesurer et selon les conurbations. De nombreux facteurs sont susceptibles d'expliquer cette tendance (vieillissement, augmentation du prix du pétrole, préoccupation environnementale, congestion, politique de déplacements plus contraignante pour la voiture développement des transports collectifs…). Mais ces facteurs sont fortement corrélés entre eux. L'objectif du projet est d'identifier les principaux facteurs explicatifs de ces évolutions, puis de quantifier leur importance. Cette analyse permettra d'approfondir la connaissance des 9 déterminants de l'usage de la voiture et de son évolution. Elle permettra aussi d'identifier quelle est la part des évolutions observées qui est due aux facteurs habituellement pris en compte dans la modélisation à travers la localisation, la motorisation, l'offre de transport et les principaux déterminants sociodémographiques. Implicitement, cela permettra aussi en creux de s'interroger sur la part des évolutions modales non expliquée par les déterminants usuels et qui est donc liée à d'autres dimensions non ou mal prises en compte dans la modélisation usuelle des choix modaux. Le projet de recherche apporte ainsi des éléments de réflexion face aux enjeux multiples qui découlent de la mobilité urbaine qu'ils soient économiques, environnementaux ou sociaux.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirkan Geyik & Patrick Bonnel, 2016. "Évolution de l’usage des modes de transport - Analyse des facteurs explicatifs : application à l’agglomération lyonnaise," Working Papers halshs-01685748, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01685748
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01685748
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01685748/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pascal Pochet, 2003. "Mobilité et accès à la voiture chez les personnes âgées : évolutions actuelles et enjeux," Post-Print halshs-00067935, HAL.
    2. Bhat, Chandra R. & Guo, Jessica Y., 2007. "A comprehensive analysis of built environment characteristics on household residential choice and auto ownership levels," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 506-526, June.
    3. Matthew Roorda & Antonio Páez & Catherine Morency & Ruben Mercado & Steven Farber, 2010. "Trip generation of vulnerable populations in three Canadian cities: a spatial ordered probit approach," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 525-548, May.
    4. Abu Oakil & Dick Ettema & Theo Arentze & Harry Timmermans, 2014. "Changing household car ownership level and life cycle events: an action in anticipation or an action on occurrence," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 889-904, July.
    5. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1995. "Activity, Travel, and the Allocation of Time," Working Papers 199505, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    6. Marc Joly & Catherine Morency & Patrick Bonnel, 2009. "Measuring the relationship between public transport share, urban sprawl and car ownership [Motorisation et localisation : quels effets sur le choix du modal ?]," Post-Print halshs-00456587, HAL.
    7. Louafi Bouzouina & Jean-Pierre Nicolas & Florian Vanco, 2010. "Quel développement durable des mobilités quotidiennes au sein de l'agglomération lyonnaise ?, rapport final pour le compte du Grand Lyon," Working Papers halshs-00629384, HAL.
    8. Bhat, Chandra R. & Eluru, Naveen, 2009. "A copula-based approach to accommodate residential self-selection effects in travel behavior modeling," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 749-765, August.
    9. Patrick Bonnel, 2004. "Prévoir la demande de transport," Post-Print halshs-00077292, HAL.
    10. Raux, Charles & Ma, Tai-Yu & Joly, Iragaël & Kaufmann, Vincent & Cornelis, Eric & Ovtracht, Nicolas, 2011. "Travel and activity time allocation: An empirical comparison between eight cities in Europe," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 401-412, March.
    11. Alsnih, Rahaf & Hensher, David A., 2003. "The mobility and accessibility expectations of seniors in an aging population," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 903-916, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mitra, Suman & Yao, Mingqi & Ritchie, Stephen G., 2021. "Gender differences in elderly mobility in the United States," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 203-226.
    2. Abu Toasin Oakil & Dorien Manting & Hans Nijland, 2018. "The role of individual characteristics in car ownership shortly after relationship dissolution," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1871-1882, November.
    3. Doddamani, Chetan & Manoj, M., 2022. "Residential relocation and changes in household vehicle ownership and travel behavior: Exploring the context of Hubli-Dharwad twin-cities in India from a planning viewpoint," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 134-155.
    4. Jukka Heinonen & Michał Czepkiewicz & Áróra Árnadóttir & Juudit Ottelin, 2021. "Drivers of Car Ownership in a Car-Oriented City: A Mixed-Method Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-26, January.
    5. Xinyu Cao & Daniel Chatman, 2016. "How will smart growth land-use policies affect travel? A theoretical discussion on the importance of residential sorting," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 43(1), pages 58-73, January.
    6. Devajyoti Deka, 2014. "The Living, Moving and Travel Behaviour of the Growing American Solo: Implications for Cities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(4), pages 634-654, March.
    7. Bhat, Chandra R. & Astroza, Sebastian & Bhat, Aarti C. & Nagel, Kai, 2016. "Incorporating a multiple discrete-continuous outcome in the generalized heterogeneous data model: Application to residential self-selection effects analysis in an activity time-use behavior model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 52-76.
    8. Faghih-Imani, Ahmadreza & Eluru, Naveen, 2016. "Determining the role of bicycle sharing system infrastructure installation decision on usage: Case study of montreal BIXI system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 685-698.
    9. Chandra R. Bhat & Patrícia S. Lavieri, 2018. "A new mixed MNP model accommodating a variety of dependent non-normal coefficient distributions," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(2), pages 239-275, March.
    10. Patterson, Zachary & Saddier, Simon & Rezaei, Ali & Manaugh, Kevin, 2014. "Use of the Urban Core Index to analyze residential mobility: the case of seniors in Canadian metropolitan regions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 116-125.
    11. L. E. Karjalainen & M. Tiitu & J. Lyytimäki & V. Helminen & P. Tapio & A. Tuominen & T. Vasankari & J. Lehtimäki & R. Paloniemi, 2023. "Going carless in different urban fabrics: socio-demographics of household car ownership," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 107-142, February.
    12. Evelyn Blumenberg & Anne Brown & Andrew Schouten, 2020. "Car-deficit households: determinants and implications for household travel in the U.S," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 1103-1125, June.
    13. Bhat, Chandra R. & Mondal, Aupal, 2022. "A New Flexible Generalized Heterogeneous Data Model (GHDM) with an Application to Examine the Effect of High Density Neighborhood Living on Bicycling Frequency," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 244-266.
    14. Ipek Sener & Chandra Bhat, 2012. "Flexible spatial dependence structures for unordered multinomial choice models: formulation and application to teenagers’ activity participation," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 657-683, May.
    15. Brownstone, David & Golob, Thomas F., 2009. "The impact of residential density on vehicle usage and energy consumption," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 91-98, January.
    16. Hubers, Christa & Lyons, Glenn, 2013. "New technologies for the old: Potential implications of living in later life for travel demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 220-228.
    17. Cao, Jason & Ettema, Dick, 2014. "Satisfaction with travel and residential self-selection: How do preferences moderate the impact of the Hiawatha Light Rail Transit line?," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(3), pages 93-108.
    18. Bhat, Chandra R. & Astroza, Sebastian & Sidharthan, Raghuprasad & Alam, Mohammad Jobair Bin & Khushefati, Waleed H., 2014. "A joint count-continuous model of travel behavior with selection based on a multinomial probit residential density choice model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 31-51.
    19. Wang, Xiaoquan & Yin, Chaoying & Zhang, Junyi & Shao, Chunfu & Wang, Shengyou, 2021. "Nonlinear effects of residential and workplace built environment on car dependence," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    20. Xinyu Cao & Patricia L. Mokhtarian, 2012. "The connections among accessibility, self- selection and walking behaviour: a case study of Northern California residents," Chapters, in: Karst T. Geurs & Kevin J. Krizek & Aura Reggiani (ed.), Accessibility Analysis and Transport Planning, chapter 5, pages 73-95, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01685748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.