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A pandemic business interruption insurance

Author

Listed:
  • Alexis Louaas

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique)

  • Pierre Picard

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique)

Abstract

We analyze how pandemic business interruption coverage can be put in place by building on capitalization mechanisms. The pandemic risk cannot be mutualized since it affects simultaneously a large number of businesses, and furthermore, it has a systemic nature because it goes along with a severe decline in the real economy. However, as shown by COVID-19, pandemics affect economic sectors in a differentiated way: some of them are very severely affected because their activity is strongly impacted by travel bans and constraints on work organisation, while others are more resistant. This opens the door to risk coverage mechanisms based on a portfolio of financial securities, including long-short positions and options in stock markets. We show that such financial investment allow insurers to offer business interruption coverage in pandemic states, while simultaneously hedging the risks associated with the alternation of bullish and bearish non-pandemic states. These conclusions are derived from a theoretical model of corporate risk management, and they are illustrated by numerical simulations, using data from the French stock exchange.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis Louaas & Pierre Picard, 2020. "A pandemic business interruption insurance," Working Papers hal-02941948, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02941948
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02941948
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Hartwig & Greg Niehaus & Joseph Qiu, 2020. "Insurance for economic losses caused by pandemics," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 45(2), pages 134-170, September.
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    5. Catherine Buffington & Carrie Dennis & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia Foster & Shawn Klimek, 2020. "Measuring the Effect of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: The Small Business Pulse Survey," Working Papers 20-16, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. MOSSIN, Jan, 1968. "Aspects of rational insurance purchasing," LIDAM Reprints CORE 23, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    7. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1993. "Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1629-1658, December.
    8. Miklós Koren & Rita Pető, 2020. "Business disruptions from social distancing," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, September.
    9. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Zoe Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher Stanton, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on small business outcomes and expectations," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(30), pages 17656-17666, July.
    10. Andreas Richter & Thomas C. Wilson, 2020. "Covid-19: implications for insurer risk management and the insurability of pandemic risk," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 45(2), pages 171-199, September.
    11. Louaas, Alexis & Picard, Pierre, 2021. "Pandemic insurance: A portfolio management approach," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 54, pages 70-75.
    12. Sandrine Spaeter, 2021. "How to Reconcile Pandemic Business Interruption Risk With Insurance Coverage," Working Papers of BETA 2021-18, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Preparation

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    Cited by:

    1. Eberhard Feess & Cathrin Jordan & Ilan Noy, 2022. "Insurance for Catastrophes - Indemnity vs. Parametric Insurance with Imperfect Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 9631, CESifo.
    2. Sandrine Spaeter, 2021. "How to Reconcile Pandemic Business Interruption Risk With Insurance Coverage," Working Papers of BETA 2021-18, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. André Schmitt & Sandrine Spaeter, 2022. "Providing Pandemic Business Interruption Coverage with Double Trigger Cat Bonds," Working Papers of BETA 2022-05, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    4. André Schmitt & Sandrine Spaeter, 2023. "Providing pandemic business interruption coverage with double trigger cat bonds," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 48(3), pages 687-713, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pandemic; business interruption; insurance; risk management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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