IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2003.13983.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business disruptions from social distancing

Author

Listed:
  • Mikl'os Koren
  • Rita PetH{o}

Abstract

Social distancing interventions can be effective against epidemics but are potentially detrimental for the economy. Businesses that rely heavily on face-to-face communication or close physical proximity when producing a product or providing a service are particularly vulnerable. There is, however, no systematic evidence about the role of human interactions across different lines of business and about which will be the most limited by social distancing. Here we provide theory-based measures of the reliance of U.S. businesses on human interaction, detailed by industry and geographic location. We find that 49 million workers work in occupations that rely heavily on face-to-face communication or require close physical proximity to other workers. Our model suggests that when businesses are forced to reduce worker contacts by half, they need a 12 percent wage subsidy to compensate for the disruption in communication. Retail, hotels and restaurants, arts and entertainment and schools are the most affected sectors. Our results can help target fiscal assistance to businesses that are most disrupted by social distancing.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikl'os Koren & Rita PetH{o}, 2020. "Business disruptions from social distancing," Papers 2003.13983, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2003.13983
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.13983
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Caselli & Miklós Koren & Milan Lisicky & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Diversification Through Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(1), pages 449-502.
    2. Ciccone, Antonio & Hall, Robert E, 1996. "Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 54-70, March.
    3. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton & Laurent Gobillon, 2012. "The Cost of Agglomeration: Land Prices in Cities," Working Papers hal-03461075, HAL.
    4. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton & Laurent Gobillon, 2019. "The Costs of Agglomeration: House and Land Prices in French Cities," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(4), pages 1556-1589.
    5. Jérôme Adda, 2016. "Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(2), pages 891-941.
    6. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2020. "Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1400-1443.
    7. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    8. Firpo, Sergio & Fortin, Nicole M. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2011. "Occupational Tasks and Changes in the Wage Structure," IZA Discussion Papers 5542, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. David Cuberes, 2013. "Are Internet and Face-to-Face Contacts Complements or Substitutes? Evidence from Internet Traffic between Cities," Working Papers 2013010, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Koster, Hans R.A. & Tabuchi, Takatoshi & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2021. "High-speed Rail and the Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity: Evidence from Japan's Shinkansen," CEPR Discussion Papers 15771, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Marianna Belloc & Paolo Naticchioni & Claudia Vittori, 2018. "Urban Wage Premia, Cost of Living, and Collective Bargaining," CESifo Working Paper Series 7253, CESifo.
    3. Marcel Henkel & Tobias Seidel & Jens Suedekum, 2021. "Fiscal Transfers in the Spatial Economy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 433-468, November.
    4. Gilles Duranton & Diego Puga, 2020. "The Economics of Urban Density," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    5. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2019. "Urban growth and its aggregate implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 14215, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. de Bellefon, Marie-Pierre & Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent & Gorin, Clément, 2021. "Delineating urban areas using building density," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Rutger-Jan Lange & Coen N. Teulings, 2021. "The option value of vacant land: Don't build when demand for housing is booming," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-022/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2014. "The Growth of Cities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 5, pages 781-853, Elsevier.
    9. Bonnet, Odran & Chapelle, Guillaume & Trannoy, Alain & Wasmer, Etienne, 2021. "Land is back, it should be taxed, it can be taxed," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Becker, Sascha O. & Heblich, Stephan & Sturm, Daniel M., 2021. "The impact of public employment: Evidence from Bonn," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    11. Bento, Pedro & Restuccia, Diego, 2021. "On average establishment size across sectors and countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 220-242.
    12. Ch, Rafael & Martin, Diego A. & Vargas, Juan F., 2021. "Measuring the size and growth of cities using nighttime light," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Hsu, Wen-Tai & Ma, Lin, 2021. "Urbanization policy and economic development: A quantitative analysis of China's differential hukou reforms," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Kristian Behrens & Sergey Kichko & Jacques-Francois Thisse, 2021. "Working from Home: Too Much of a Good Thing?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8831, CESifo.
    15. Teresa Barbieri & Gaetano Basso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "Italian Workers at Risk During the COVID-19 Epidemic," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(1), pages 175-195, March.
    16. Akbar, Prottoy A. & Couture, Victor & Duranton, Gilles & Storeygard, Adam, 2018. "Mobility and congestion in urban India," CEPR Discussion Papers 13291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Fang, Lei & Herrendorf, Berthold, 2021. "High-skilled services and development in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Lee, Tim & Shin, Yongseok, 2017. "Horizonatal and Vertical Polarization: Task-Specific Technological Change in a Multi-Sector Economy," TSE Working Papers 17-800, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    19. Dávid Krisztián Nagy, 2021. "Quantitative Economic Geography Meets History: Questions, Answers and Challenges," Working Papers 1249, Barcelona School of Economics.
    20. Seung Jin Cho & Jun Yeong Lee & John V. Winters, 2021. "Employment impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic across metropolitan status and size," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 1958-1996, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2003.13983. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.