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Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050

Author

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  • Minh Ha-Duong

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Rodica Loisel

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This study estimates the human cost of failures in the CCS industry in 2050, using the actuarial approach. The range of expected fatalities is assessed integrating all steps of the CCS chain: additional coal production, coal transportation, carbon capture, transport, injection and storage, based on empirical evidence from technical or social analogues. The main finding is that a few hundred fatalities per year should be expected if the technology is used to avoid emitting 1 GtC yr-1 in 2050 at baseload coal power plants. The large majority of fatalities are attributable to mining and delivering more coal. These risks compare to today's industrial hazards: technical, knowable and occupational dangers for which there are socially acceptable non-zero risk levels. Some contemporary European societies tolerate about one fatality per thousand year around industrial installations. If storage sites perform like that, then expected fatalities per year due to leakage should have a minor contribution in the total expected fatalities per year: less than one. But to statistically validate such a safety level, reliability theory and the technology roadmap suggest that CO2 storage demonstration projects over the next 20 years have to cause exactly zero fatality.

Suggested Citation

  • Minh Ha-Duong & Rodica Loisel, 2011. "Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050," Post-Print halshs-00487175, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00487175
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2011.07.004
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00487175v3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Minh Ha-Duong & David Keith, 2003. "Carbon storage: the economic efficiency of storing CO2 in leaky reservoirs," Post-Print halshs-00003927, HAL.
    2. Foxon, Timothy J., 2013. "Transition pathways for a UK low carbon electricity future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 10-24.
    3. Felder, Frank A., 2009. "A critical assessment of energy accident studies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5744-5751, December.
    4. Holloway, S. & Pearce, J.M. & Hards, V.L. & Ohsumi, T. & Gale, J., 2007. "Natural emissions of CO2 from the geosphere and their bearing on the geological storage of carbon dioxide," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1194-1201.
    5. Burgherr, Peter & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2008. "Severe accident risks in fossil energy chains: A comparative analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 538-553.
    6. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2009. "When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 181-189, January.
    7. Minh Ha-Duong & Rodica Loisel, 2009. "Zero is the only acceptable leakage rate for geologically stored CO2: an editorial comment," Post-Print hal-00348128, HAL.
    8. Ortwin Renn, 2004. "Perception of Risks," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 29(1), pages 102-114, January.
    9. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2008. "The costs of failure: A preliminary assessment of major energy accidents, 1907-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1802-1820, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Minh Ha-Duong & an Ha Truong & Hong Nam Nguyen & Hoang Anh Nguyen Trinh, 2016. "Synthesis Report on Socio-environmental Impacts of Coal and Coal-fired Power Plants in Vietnam," Working Papers hal-01441680, HAL.
    2. John Michael Humphries Choptiany & Ron Pelot & Kate Sherren, 2014. "An Interdisciplinary Perspective on Carbon Capture and Storage Assessment Methods," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 18(3), pages 445-458, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortality; actuarial approach.; CCS; risk; storage safety; CSC; risque; analogue; sûreté du stockage; mortalité; approche actuarielle.;
    All these keywords.

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