IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i21p4178-d282690.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Advancing Hazard Assessment of Energy Accidents in the Natural Gas Sector with Rough Set Theory and Decision Rules

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Cinelli

    (Future Resilient Systems (FRS), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zürich, Singapore-ETH Centre (SEC), Singapore 138602, Singapore
    Current address: Environmental Decision Analytics Branch, Land Remediation and Technology Division, Center for Environmental Solutions and Emergency Response, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 45268 Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.)

  • Matteo Spada

    (Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, 5232 Villigen PSI, Switzerland)

  • Miłosz Kadziński

    (Institute of Computing Science, Poznań University of Technology, 60-965 Poznań, Poland)

  • Grzegorz Miebs

    (Institute of Computing Science, Poznań University of Technology, 60-965 Poznań, Poland)

  • Peter Burgherr

    (Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, 5232 Villigen PSI, Switzerland)

Abstract

The impacts of energy accidents are of primary interest for risk and resilience analysts, decision makers, and the general public. They can cause human health and environmental impacts, economic and societal losses, which justifies the interest in developing models to mitigate these adverse outcomes. We present a classification model for sorting energy accidents in the natural gas sector into hazard classes, according to their potential fatalities. The model is built on decision rules, which are knowledge blocks in the form of “if (condition), then (classification to hazard class x)”. They were extracted by the rough sets method using natural gas accident data from 1970–2016 of the Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) of the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), the most authoritative information source for accidents in the energy sector. This was the first attempt to explore the relationships between the descriptors of energy accidents and the consequence (fatalities). The model was applied to a set of hypothetical accidents to show how the decision-making process could be supported when there is an interest in knowing which class (i.e., low, medium, high) of fatalities an energy accident could cause. The successful use of this approach in the natural gas sector proves that it can be also adapted for other energy chains, such as oil and coal.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Cinelli & Matteo Spada & Miłosz Kadziński & Grzegorz Miebs & Peter Burgherr, 2019. "Advancing Hazard Assessment of Energy Accidents in the Natural Gas Sector with Rough Set Theory and Decision Rules," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:21:p:4178-:d:282690
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/21/4178/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/21/4178/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salvatore Greco & Benedetto Matarazzo & Roman Słowiński, 2016. "Decision Rule Approach," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Salvatore Greco & Matthias Ehrgott & José Rui Figueira (ed.), Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, edition 2, chapter 0, pages 497-552, Springer.
    2. Burgherr, Peter & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2008. "Severe accident risks in fossil energy chains: A comparative analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 538-553.
    3. Burgherr, Peter & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2014. "Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(S1), pages 45-56.
    4. Burgherr, Peter & Eckle, Petrissa & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2012. "Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the coal, oil and natural gas chains," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 97-103.
    5. Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik & Marek Urbanik & Janusz R. Rak, 2018. "Approaches for Safety Analysis of Gas-Pipeline Functionality in Terms of Failure Occurrence: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-13, June.
    6. Aven, Terje, 2017. "How some types of risk assessments can support resilience analysis and management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 536-543.
    7. Petrissa Eckle & Peter Burgherr, 2013. "Bayesian Data Analysis of Severe Fatal Accident Risk in the Oil Chain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 146-160, January.
    8. Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Li, Xueyi, 2018. "A systematic framework of vulnerability analysis of a natural gas pipeline network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 79-91.
    9. Peng Zhang & Guojin Qin & Yihuan Wang, 2019. "Risk Assessment System for Oil and Gas Pipelines Laid in One Ditch Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Kipyoung Kim & Hokeun Kang & Youtaek Kim, 2015. "Risk Assessment for Natural Gas Hydrate Carriers: A Hazard Identification (HAZID) Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-23, April.
    11. Blaszczynski, Jerzy & Greco, Salvatore & Slowinski, Roman, 2007. "Multi-criteria classification - A new scheme for application of dominance-based decision rules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1030-1044, September.
    12. Wang, Tai-Ran & Mousseau, Vincent & Pedroni, Nicola & Zio, Enrico, 2017. "An empirical classification-based framework for the safety criticality assessment of energy production systems, in presence of inconsistent data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 139-151.
    13. Roman Słowiński & Salvatore Greco & Benedetto Matarazzo, 2014. "Rough-Set-Based Decision Support," Springer Books, in: Edmund K. Burke & Graham Kendall (ed.), Search Methodologies, edition 2, chapter 0, pages 557-609, Springer.
    14. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Kryman, Matthew & Laine, Emily, 2015. "Profiling technological failure and disaster in the energy sector: A comparative analysis of historical energy accidents," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 2016-2027.
    15. Hirschberg, Stefan & Bauer, Christian & Burgherr, Peter & Cazzoli, Eric & Heck, Thomas & Spada, Matteo & Treyer, Karin, 2016. "Health effects of technologies for power generation: Contributions from normal operation, severe accidents and terrorist threat," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 373-387.
    16. Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik, 2018. "Approaches to Methods of Risk Analysis and Assessment Regarding the Gas Supply to a City," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, November.
    17. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2008. "The costs of failure: A preliminary assessment of major energy accidents, 1907-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1802-1820, May.
    18. Diaz-Balteiro, L & González-Pachón, J. & Romero, C., 2017. "Measuring systems sustainability with multi-criteria methods: A critical review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(2), pages 607-616.
    19. Landry, Maurice & Malouin, Jean-Louis & Oral, Muhittin, 1983. "Model validation in operations research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 207-220, November.
    20. Jeffrey C. Cegan & Ashley M. Filion & Jeffrey M. Keisler & Igor Linkov, 2017. "Trends and applications of multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: literature review," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 123-133, June.
    21. Bernard Roy, 2010. "Two conceptions of decision aiding," International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 74-79.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oppio, Alessandra & Dell’Ovo, Marta & Torrieri, Francesca & Miebs, Grzegorz & Kadziński, Miłosz, 2020. "Understanding the drivers of Urban Development Agreements with the rough set approach and robust decision rules," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    2. Georgios K. Koulinas & Olympia E. Demesouka & Gerasimos G. Bougelis & Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis, 2022. "Risk Prioritization in a Natural Gas Compressor Station Construction Project Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Dawid Szpak & Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik & Mohamed Eid, 2022. "A Grey-System Theory Approach to Assess the Safety of Gas-Supply Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-13, June.
    4. Matteo Spada & Peter Burgherr, 2020. "Comparative Risk Assessment for Fossil Energy Chains Using Bayesian Model Averaging," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Spada, Matteo & Paraschiv, Florentina & Burgherr, Peter, 2018. "A comparison of risk measures for accidents in the energy sector and their implications on decision-making strategies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 277-288.
    2. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Kryman, Matthew & Laine, Emily, 2015. "Profiling technological failure and disaster in the energy sector: A comparative analysis of historical energy accidents," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 2016-2027.
    3. Boccard, Nicolas, 2018. "Safety along the energy chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1018-1030.
    4. Hirschberg, Stefan & Bauer, Christian & Burgherr, Peter & Cazzoli, Eric & Heck, Thomas & Spada, Matteo & Treyer, Karin, 2016. "Health effects of technologies for power generation: Contributions from normal operation, severe accidents and terrorist threat," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 373-387.
    5. Cinelli, Marco & Kadziński, Miłosz & Gonzalez, Michael & Słowiński, Roman, 2020. "How to support the application of multiple criteria decision analysis? Let us start with a comprehensive taxonomy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Du, Wen Sheng & Hu, Bao Qing, 2017. "Dominance-based rough fuzzy set approach and its application to rule induction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(2), pages 690-703.
    7. Kamenopoulos, Sotiris N. & Tsoutsos, Theocharis, 2015. "Assessment of the safe operation and maintenance of photovoltaic systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1633-1638.
    8. Matteo Spada & Peter Burgherr, 2020. "Comparative Risk Assessment for Fossil Energy Chains Using Bayesian Model Averaging," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, January.
    9. Burgherr, Peter & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2014. "Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(S1), pages 45-56.
    10. Florentina Paraschiv & Dima Mohamad, 2020. "The Nuclear Power Dilemma—Between Perception and Reality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    11. Anna Kalinina & Matteo Spada & Peter Burgherr, 2020. "Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non‐OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1723-1743, September.
    12. Moahamed Younes El Bouti & Mohamed Allouch, 2018. "Analysis of 801 Work-Related Incidents in the Oil and Gas Industry That Occurred Between 2014 and 2016 in 6 Regions," Energy and Environment Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, June.
    13. Oppio, Alessandra & Dell’Ovo, Marta & Torrieri, Francesca & Miebs, Grzegorz & Kadziński, Miłosz, 2020. "Understanding the drivers of Urban Development Agreements with the rough set approach and robust decision rules," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    14. Luis Diaz-Balteiro & Carlos Iglesias-Merchan & Carlos Romero & Silvestre García de Jalón, 2020. "The Sustainable Management of Land and Fisheries Resources Using Multicriteria Techniques: A Meta-Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, October.
    15. Wang, Yuxin & Fu, Gui & Lyu, Qian & Wu, Yali & Jia, Qinsong & Yang, Xiaoyu & Li, Xiao, 2022. "Reform and development of coal mine safety in China: An analysis from government supervision, technical equipment, and miner education," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Scholtens, Bert & Boersen, Arieke, 2011. "Stocks and energy shocks: The impact of energy accidents on stock market value," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1698-1702.
    17. Bizet, Romain & Bonev, Petyo & Leveque, Francois, 2020. "The effect of local monitoring on nuclear safety and compliance: Evidence from France," Economics Working Paper Series 2014, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    18. Gunnar Luderer & Michaja Pehl & Anders Arvesen & Thomas Gibon & Benjamin L Bodirsky & Harmen Sytze de Boer & Oliver Fricko & Mohamad Hejazi & Florian Humpenöder & Gokul Iyer & Silvana Mima & Ioanna Mo, 2019. "Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies," Post-Print hal-02380468, HAL.
    19. Flávia de Souza Costa Neves Cavazotte & Cristiano José Pereira Duarte & Anna Maria Calvão Gobbo, 2013. "Authentic leader, safe work: the influence of leadership on safety performance," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, June.
    20. Sarah Ben Amor & Fateh Belaid & Ramzi Benkraiem & Boumediene Ramdani & Khaled Guesmi, 2023. "Multi-criteria classification, sorting, and clustering: a bibliometric review and research agenda," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(2), pages 771-793, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:21:p:4178-:d:282690. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.