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Endogenous structural change and climate targets

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  • Renaud Crassous

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - ENGREF - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENGREF - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts)

  • Jean Charles Hourcade

    () (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - ENGREF - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Olivier Sassi

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - ENGREF - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper envisages endogenous technical change as resulting from the interplay between the economic growth engine, consumption, technology and localization patterns. We perform numerical simulations with the recursive dynamic general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R to study how modeling induced technical change affects costs of CO2 stabilization. IMACLIM-R incorporates innovative specifications about final consumption of transportation and energy to represent critical stylized facts such as rebound effects and demand induction by infrastructures and equipments. Doing so brings to light how induced technical change may not only lower stabilization costs thanks to pure technological progress, but also triggers induction of final demand - effects critical to both the level of the carbon tax and the costs of policy given a specific stabilization target. Finally, we study the sensitivity of total stabilization costs to various parameters including both technical assumptions as accelerated turnover of equipments and non-energy choices as alternative infrastructure policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Renaud Crassous & Jean Charles Hourcade & Olivier Sassi, 2006. "Endogenous structural change and climate targets," Post-Print halshs-00009335, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00009335
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00009335
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    File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00009335/document
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Schafer, Andreas, 2012. "Introducing behavioral change in transportation into energy/economy/environment models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6234, The World Bank.
    2. Gusdorf, Francois & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2007. "Behaviors and housing inertia are key factors in determining the consequences of a shock in transportation costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3483-3495, June.
    3. Bibas, Ruben & Méjean, Aurélie & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, 2015. "Energy efficiency policies and the timing of action: An assessment of climate mitigation costs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 137-152.
    4. Céline Guivarch & Renaud Crassous & Olivier Sassi & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2009. "The costs of climate policies in a second best world with labour market," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866429, HAL.
    5. Guivarch, Céline & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Crassous, Renaud, 2009. "The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy-environment-economy CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4259-4266, November.
    6. Kai LESSMANN & Robert MARSCHINSKI & Ottmar EDENHOFER, "undated". "The Effects of Trade Sanctions in International Environmental Agreements," EcoMod2008 23800079, EcoMod.
    7. Monjon, Stéphanie & Quirion, Philippe, 2011. "Addressing leakage in the EU ETS: Border adjustment or output-based allocation?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 1957-1971, September.
    8. Céline Guivarch & Renaud Crassous & Olivier Sassi & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2011. "The costs of climate policies in a second-best world with labour market imperfections," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 768-788, January.
    9. Gusdorf, Francois & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2007. "Compact or spread-out cities: Urban planning, taxation, and the vulnerability to transportation shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4826-4838, October.
    10. Hübler, Michael & Baumstark, Lavinia & Leimbach, Marian & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Bauer, Nico, 2012. "An integrated assessment model with endogenous growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 118-131.
    11. Gunnar Luderer & Valentina Bosetti & Michael Jakob & Henri Waisman & Jan Steckel & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2009. "Towards a Better Understanding of Disparities in Scenarios of Decarbonization: Sectorally Explicit Results from the RECIPE Project," Working Papers 2009.117, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Sandrine Mathy & Céline Guivarch, 2009. "What if energy decoupling of emerging economies were not so spontaneous ? An illustrative example on India," Working Papers hal-00866443, HAL.
    13. Sandrine Mathy & Céline Guivarch, 2009. "What if energy decoupling of emerging economies were not so spontaneous? An illustrative example on India," Post-Print halshs-00366274, HAL.
    14. F. Souty & T. Brunelle & P. Dumas & B. Dorin, & P. Ciais & R. Crassous, 2012. "The Nexus Land-Use Model, an Approach Articulating Biophysical Potentials and Economic Dynamics to Model Competition for Land-Uses," Working Papers 2012.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    15. Céline Guivarch & Stéphane Hallegatte & Renaud Crassous, 2008. "The Resilience of the Indian Economy to Rising Oil Prices as a Validation Test for a Global Energy-Environment-Economy CGE Model," Working Papers hal-00866431, HAL.
    16. Stéphanie Monjon & Philippe Quirion, 2010. "Addressing leakage in the EU ETS : Border adjustment or output-based allocation ?," Working Papers hal-00866444, HAL.
    17. Sandrine Mathy & Céline Guivarch, 2009. "Climate policies : what if emerging country baseline were not so optimistic? - a case study related to India," CIRED Working Papers halshs-00366276, HAL.
    18. Jean-Francois Mercure, 2012. "On the changeover timescales of technology transitions and induced efficiency changes: an overarching theory," Papers 1209.0424, arXiv.org.
    19. Mathy, Sandrine & Fink, Meike & Bibas, Ruben, 2015. "Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 176-190.
    20. Gunnar Luderer & Enrica DeCian & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Marian Leimbach & Henri Waisman & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "On the regional distribution of mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 59-78, September.
    21. Ruben Bibas & Aurélie Méjean, 2012. "Negative emissions and ambitious climate policies in a second best world: A general equilibrium assessment of technology options in the electricity sector," EcoMod2012 4569, EcoMod.
    22. Martin Junginger & Wilfried van Sark & André Faaij (ed.), 2010. "Technological Learning in the Energy Sector," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13741, June.
    23. repec:spr:annopr:v:255:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2340-z is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    induced technical change; structural change; climate policy; carbon tax; transportation; infrastructures;

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