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Experimenting business models with network effects : a real options perspective

Author

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  • Charlotte Krychowski

    (IMT-BS - MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management)

  • Bertrand Quelin

    (SPE - Département Stratégie et Politique d’Entreprise (Groupe HEC))

  • Bulat Sanditov

    (IMT-BS - DEFI - Département Droit, Économie et Finances - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management)

Abstract

Lorsqu'une technologie de rupture apparaît, il est difficile pour les nouveaux entrants, comme pour les entreprises en place, de s'imaginer quel est le modèle d'affaires le plus approprié pour extraire tout le potentiel économique de la nouvelle technologie. La littérature a établi qu'il est peu probable de définir le bon modèle d'affaires dès le départ, et que les firmes doivent plutôt procéder à des expériences pour progressivement mettre au point un modèle d'affaires en suivant un principe d'essai - erreur. Cependant, la recherche actuelle ne dit pas sur quels critères il faut fonder les décisions d'investissements nécessaires pour réaliser ces expériences. Dans le cas d'une technologie de rupture, le premier investissement à réaliser est le lancement commercial de la nouvelle technologie. Cette décision soulève deux problèmes : (1) un problème d'échelle : est-il préférable de lancer la technologie à grande échelle pour obtenir des résultats représentatifs, ou bien sur un périmètre limité pour réduire les coûts du test ? (2) un problème de durée : faut-il prolonger la durée de l'expérience pour améliorer au mieux le modèle d'affaires, ou au contraire l'écourter pour éviter l'imitation par les concurrents ? Ces deux problèmes sont particulièrement difficiles à résoudre lorsque le modèle d'affaires présente des effets de réseau. Dans cet article, nous étudions dans quelle mesure les options réelles peuvent être utilisées comme aide à la décision d'investissement lorsqu'une firme souhaite tester le modèle d'affaires d'une nouvelle technologie. Nous comparons l'expérimentation d'un modèle d'affaires à une option d'apprentissage, et analysons les différents facteurs affectant la valeur de cette option, en particulier en présence d'effets de réseau. Nous montrons qu'une analyse optionnelle permet d'estimer la durée optimale de l'expérimentation, mais plus difficilement la taille optimale de l'expérimentation lorsque nous sommes en présence d'effets de réseau. Nous illustrons notre approche avec le cas de la téléphonie mobile en Europe, dont le modèle d'affaires a été profondément changé suite à l'introduction de la technologie 3G.

Suggested Citation

  • Charlotte Krychowski & Bertrand Quelin & Bulat Sanditov, 2017. "Experimenting business models with network effects : a real options perspective," Post-Print hal-01582498, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01582498
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01582498v1
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