Training or search? evidence and an equilibrium model

Training programs are a major tool of labor market policies in OECD countries. I use a unique panel data set on the labor market experience of individual German workers between 2000 and 2002 to estimate a dynamic model of search and training, which allows me to quantify the impact of training programs and unemployment benefits on employment, unemployment, output, and the government expenditures. ; The model extends Ljungqvist and Sargent (JPE, 1998) by incorporating a training decision and a broader menu of unemployment benefits. Government-sponsored training programs feature a key trade-off with respect to unemployment insurance programs: they offer more generous unemployment benefits but require more time and effort from workers to generate higher skills. As a result, unemployed workers with different human capital and benefits make different decisions about training, search, and job acceptance. ; I use the model to quantitatively study the recent reforms implemented in Germany and run more counterfactual experiments. I simulate the transition path under back-to-back unexpected reforms in 2003-2006 and find the dynamics of the model's unemployment rates are close to the data. In a counterfactual experiment in which I model an economy with a German-like training system and a US-like unemployment benefit structure (roughly, benefits are lower), I find that employment and output rise substantially.