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Options, sunspots, and the creation of uncertainty

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Listed author(s):
  • David Bowman
  • Jon Faust

Abstract

We present a model in which the addition of an option market leads to sunspot equilibria in an economy which has no sunspot equilibrium before the market is introduced. This phenomenon occurs because the payoff of an option contract is contingent upon market prices, and while prices are taken as exogenous by individuals within the economy they are endogenous to the economy as a whole. Our results provide robust counterexamples to the two most prevalent views of options markets in finance. Following Ross [1976], it is often assumed that the addition of option contracts to an incomplete markets economy can help complete markets. We demonstrate that the addition of option markets can instead increase the number of events which agents need to insure against. Following Black-Scholes [1973], it is often assumed that the economy is such that options are redundant. We demonstrate equilibria in which an added option market is not redundant even when markets were complete before its introduction.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1995/510/default.htm
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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 510.

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Date of creation: 1995
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:510
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Keywords: Derivative securities ; Options (Finance);

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  1. Friesen, Peter H, 1979. "The Arrow-Debreu Model Extended to Financial Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 689-707, May.
  2. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
  3. Brown, Donald J & Ross, Stephen A, 1991. "Spanning, Valuation and Options," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 1(1), pages 3-12, January.
  4. Steinar Ekern & Robert Wilson, 1974. "On the Theory of the Firm in an Economy with Incomplete Markets," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 5(1), pages 171-180, Spring.
  5. Geanakoplos, John & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1989. "Real indeterminacy with financial assets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 22-38, February.
  6. Krasa, Stefan, 1989. "Existence of competitive equilibria for option markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 413-421, April.
  7. Balasko, Yves & Cass, David, 1989. "The Structure of Financial Equilibrium with Exogenous Yields: The Case of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(1), pages 135-162, January.
  8. Radner, Roy, 1972. "Existence of Equilibrium of Plans, Prices, and Price Expectations in a Sequence of Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 289-303, March.
  9. Polemarchakis, H. M. & Ku, Bon-Il, 1990. "Options and equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 107-112.
  10. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
  11. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  12. Krasa, Stefan & Werner, Jan, 1991. "Equilibria with options: Existence and indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 305-320, August.
  13. Cass, David, 1992. "Sunspots and Incomplete Financial Markets: The General Case," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 2(3), pages 341-358, July.
  14. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
  15. Green, Richard C. & Jarrow, Robert A., 1987. "Spanning and completeness in markets with contingent claims," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 202-210, February.
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Cited by:

  1. Galvani, Valentina & Plourde, André, 2010. "Portfolio diversification in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-268, March.
  2. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., 2001. "Alternative Keynesian and Post Keynesian Perspectives on Uncertainty and Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 23(4), pages 545-566, July.
  3. François Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Incomplete markets and derivative assets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 517-545, August.
  4. Galvani, Valentina, 2007. "A note on spanning with options," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 106-114, July.
  5. Gunther Capelle-Blancard, 2010. "Are derivatives dangerous?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00605908, HAL.

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