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Options, sunspots, and the creation of uncertainty

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Abstract

We present a model in which the addition of an option market leads to sunspot equilibria in an economy which has no sunspot equilibrium before the market is introduced. This phenomenon occurs because the payoff of an option contract is contingent upon market prices, and while prices are taken as exogenous by individuals within the economy they are endogenous to the economy as a whole. Our results provide robust counterexamples to the two most prevalent views of options markets in finance. Following Ross [1976], it is often assumed that the addition of option contracts to an incomplete markets economy can help complete markets. We demonstrate that the addition of option markets can instead increase the number of events which agents need to insure against. Following Black-Scholes [1973], it is often assumed that the economy is such that options are redundant. We demonstrate equilibria in which an added option market is not redundant even when markets were complete before its introduction.

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  • David Bowman & Jon Faust, 1995. "Options, sunspots, and the creation of uncertainty," International Finance Discussion Papers 510, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:510
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    Cited by:

    1. François Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Incomplete markets and derivative assets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 517-545, August.
    2. Galvani, Valentina & Plourde, André, 2010. "Portfolio diversification in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-268, March.
    3. Gunther Capelle-Blancard, 2010. "Are derivatives dangerous?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00605908, HAL.
    4. J. Barkley Rosser, 2001. "Alternative Keynesian and Post Keynesian Perspective on Uncertainty and Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 545-566, July.
    5. Oehmke, Martin & Zawadowski, Adam, 2015. "Synthetic or real? The equilibrium effects of credit default swaps on bond markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra & Sanjay R. Singh, 2021. "The financial origins of non-fundamental risk," Working Papers 345, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    7. Xavier Ragot & Francois Le Grand, 2010. "Prices and volumes of options: A simple theory of risk sharing when markets are incomplete," 2010 Meeting Papers 300, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1p7ctioc2n80gp0icks5dssdsa is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1p7ctioc2n80gp0icks5dssdsa is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Galvani, Valentina, 2007. "A note on spanning with options," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 106-114, July.

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    Keywords

    Derivative securities; options;

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