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Sunspots and Incomplete Financial Markets: The Leading Example

In: The Economics of Imperfect Competition and Employment

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  • David Cass

Abstract

To even the most casual reader of the daily business pages, it must be fairly obvious that financial markets react (or overreact) to much news which clearly (or, at least, arguably) has little or no direct bearing on ‘fundamentals’. Some prominent, current items: the threats issuing from various Middle Eastern factions; the Fed’s weekly announcement of previous changes in the money supply; the outcome of this fall’s Congressional elections; the great deficit debate. Contrary to one’s instinctive reaction as a trained economist, several recent studies have convincingly demonstrated that such market behavior is not necessarily ‘non-economic’ or ‘irrational’. Prices and returns-and hence market allocation itself-may very well consistently depend on purely expectational phenomena. Moreover, self-fulfilling beliefs about market forces may have significant consequences for individual welfare. In short, ‘sunspots’ may matter, and they may matter very much.1

Suggested Citation

  • David Cass, 1989. "Sunspots and Incomplete Financial Markets: The Leading Example," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: George R. Feiwel (ed.), The Economics of Imperfect Competition and Employment, chapter 25, pages 677-693, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-08630-6_25
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-08630-6_25
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thorsten Hens & Beate Pilgrim, "undated". "Subsidizing Charitable Giving in a Field Experiment," IEW - Working Papers 070, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    2. Portier, Franck & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 1995. "On the non-neutrality and optimality of monetary policy when financial markets are incomplete: a macroeconomic perspective," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-49, March.
    3. Atsushi Kajii, 2009. "Sunspot Equilibria In A Production Economy: Do Rational Animal Spirits Cause Overproduction?," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 35-54, March.
    4. Bowman, David & Faust, Jon, 1997. "Options, Sunspots, and the Creation of Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 957-975, October.
    5. Cass, David & Pavlova, Anna, 2004. "On trees and logs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 41-83, May.
    6. Goenka, Aditya & Prechac, Christophe, 2006. "Stabilizing sunspots," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 544-555, August.
    7. Jean-Marc Tallon, 1995. "Théorie de l'équilibre général avec marchés financiers incomplets," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(5), pages 1207-1239.
    8. Hens, Thorsten & Pilgrim, Beate, 2004. "Sunspot Equilibria and the Transfer Paradox," Discussion Papers 2004/14, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    9. Keister, Todd, 1998. "Money Taxes and Efficiency When Sunspots Matter," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 43-68, November.
    10. Kang, Minwook, 2015. "Price-level volatility and welfare in incomplete markets with sunspots," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 58-66.
    11. Atsushi Kajii, 2007. "Welfare Gains And Losses In Sunspot Equilibria," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 329-344, September.
    12. Hohnisch, Martin, 2005. "Local Interactions as a Decentralized Mechanism Coordinating Equilibrium Expectations," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 30/2005, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    13. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 2014. "Anchoring expectations of inflation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-105.
    14. Wettstein, David, 1995. "Incentives and competitive allocations in exchange economies with incomplete markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 201-216.
    15. Balasko, Yves & Geanakoplos, John, 2012. "Introduction to general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 400-406.
    16. Christophe Prechac & Aditya Goenka, 2004. "Are Sunspots Inevitable?," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 786, Econometric Society.
    17. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.

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