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Lost in Aggregation: Geographic Mismeasurement of Income and Spending

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Abstract

Using zip-code median income as a proxy for household income is common in economics but can mask heterogeneity and yield misleading conclusions. Using zip-code median income and self-reported household incomes from a representative panel of 150,000 U.S. households, we decompose average retail spending for 2018-2024. When using self-reported incomes, we observe substantial divergence in spending between low- and high-income households starting in mid-2021. When using zip-code aggregates as a proxy, this divergence disappears. Our findings indicate a 35 to 75 percent discrepancy between zip-code aggregates and self-reported incomes, highlighting the limitation of zip-code aggregates as a proxy for household incomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack Chylak & Leo Feler & Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, 2025. "Lost in Aggregation: Geographic Mismeasurement of Income and Spending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-50
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2025.050
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    1. Leo Feler & Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, 2026. "Paying More and Buying Less: 2025 Tariffs and U.S. Household Spending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2026-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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