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Liquidity problems and early payment default among subprime mortgages

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  • Nathan B. Anderson
  • Jane K. Dokko

Abstract

The lack of property tax escrow accounts among subprime mortgages causes borrowers to make large lump-sum tax payments that reduce liquidity. Different property tax collection dates across states and counties create exogenous variation in the time between loan origination and the first property tax due date, affording the opportunity to estimate the causal effect of loan-level exposure to liquidity reductions on mortgage default. We find that a nine-month delay in owing property taxes reduces the probability of first-year default by about 4 percent, or about one-third of the effect of a reduction in equity from 10 percent to negative 20 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan B. Anderson & Jane K. Dokko, 2011. "Liquidity problems and early payment default among subprime mortgages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2011-09
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Shimeng & Yang, Xi, 2020. "Property tax limits and female labor supply: Evidence from the housing boom and bust," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Geng, Xin & Janssens, Wendy & Kramer, Berber, "undated". "Liquid milk: Cash Constraints and Recurring Savings among Dairy Farmers in Kenya," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273823, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Wei-Wen Wu & Jian-Fa Li & Cheng-Yih Hong, 2017. "Verifying the Determinants of the Mortgage Defaults on Home Mortgage," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 266-273.
    4. Miller, Joshua J. & Nikaj, Silda & Lee, Jin Man, 2019. "Reverse mortgages and senior property tax relief," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-34.
    5. Geng, Xin & Janssens, Wendy & Kramer, Berber, 2023. "Liquid milk: Savings, insurance and side-selling in cooperatives," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    6. Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2017. "Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 167-191, November.
    7. Francis Wong, 2024. "Taxing Homeowners Who Won’t Borrow," CESifo Working Paper Series 11185, CESifo.
    8. Moulton, Stephanie & Haurin, Donald R. & Shi, Wei, 2015. "An analysis of default risk in the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) program," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 17-34.
    9. Raven Molloy & Hui Shan, 2013. "The Postforeclosure Experience of U.S. Households," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 225-254, June.
    10. Justin C. Contat & William M. Doerner & Michael J. Seiler & Scott Weiner, 2024. "Individual Borrower Motivations Surrounding Mortgage Forbearance Take-up and Exit," FHFA Staff Working Papers 24-11, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    11. Hu, Mingzhi & Su, Yinxin, 2025. "Military experience and mortgage stress," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
    12. Alaina Barca & Lei Ding & Yulin Hou & David Schwegman, 2021. "Assessment Frequency and Equity of the Real Property Tax: Latest Evidence from Philadelphia," Working Papers 21-43, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Möhlmann, Axel & Vogel, Edgar, 2024. "Late payments on mortgage loans and unemployment: Evidence from a German household panel," Technical Papers 07/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Chris Cunningham & Kristopher Gerardi & Lily Shen, 2021. "The Double Trigger for Mortgage Default: Evidence from the Fracking Boom," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3943-3964, June.
    15. Tal Gross & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Jialan Wang, 2014. "Liquidity Constraints and Consumer Bankruptcy: Evidence from Tax Rebates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(3), pages 431-443, July.

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