Asset price declines and real estate market illiquidity: evidence from Japanese land values
We develop an overlapping generations model of the real estate market in which search frictions and a debt overhang combine to generate price persistence and illiquidity. Illiquidity stems from heterogeneity in agent real estate valuations. The variance of agent valuations determines how quickly prices adjust following a shock to fundamentals. We examine the predictions of the model by studying price depreciation in Japanese land values subsequent to the 1990 stock market crash. Commercial land values fell much more quickly than residential land values. As we would posit that the variance of buyer valuations would be greater for residential real estate than for commercial real estate, this model matches the Japanese experience.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120-7702|
Phone: (415) 974-2000
Fax: (415) 974-3333
Web page: http://www.frbsf.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Owen Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997.
"Leverage and House-Price Dynamics in U.S. Cities,"
NBER Working Papers
5961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1989. "Is Japan's saving rate high?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-9.
- Stephen Malpezzi, 1998.
"A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices,"
Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers
98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
- Kelly, David & LeRoy, Stephen F., 2001.
"Liquidity and Liquidation,"
University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series
qt4fq7n6pj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
- Kanemoto, Yoshitsugu, 1997. "The housing question in Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 613-641, November.
- John Krainer & Stephen F. LeRoy, 2002. "Equilibrium valuation of illiquid assets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 19(2), pages 223-242.
- Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher, 2001.
"Loss Aversion and Seller Behaviour: Evidence from the Housing Market,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
- David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, . "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 323, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
- David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
- Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai-sun Kwong & Charles Ka-yui Leung, 2002.
"The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence,"
Departmental Working Papers
_147, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
- Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong & Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 2004. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 95-123.
- Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong & Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 2003. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 03-A004, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
- Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
- David Genesove & Christopher J. Mayer, 1993.
"Equity and time to sale in the real estate market,"
93-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- David Genesove & Christopher J. Mayer, 1994. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 4861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Genesove, D. & Mayer, C.J., 1994. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," Working papers 94-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03.
- Hoshi, Takeo, 2001. "What Happened to Japanese Banks?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(1), pages 1-29, February.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1988. "Saving for housing purchase in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 351-384, September.
- Yukio Noguchi, 1994. "Land Prices and House Prices in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Housing Markets in the United States and Japan, pages 11-28 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Williams, Joseph T, 1995. "Pricing Real Assets with Costly Search," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 55-90.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2004-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Noah Pollaczek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.