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Asset price declines and real estate market illiquidity: evidence from Japanese land values

  • John Krainer
  • Mark Spiegel
  • Nobuyoshi Yamori

We develop an overlapping generations model of the real estate market in which search frictions and a debt overhang combine to generate price persistence and illiquidity. Illiquidity stems from heterogeneity in agent real estate valuations. The variance of agent valuations determines how quickly prices adjust following a shock to fundamentals. We examine the predictions of the model by studying price depreciation in Japanese land values subsequent to the 1990 stock market crash. Commercial land values fell much more quickly than residential land values. As we would posit that the variance of buyer valuations would be greater for residential real estate than for commercial real estate, this model matches the Japanese experience.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2004-16.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2004-16
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  1. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behaviour: Evidence from the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
  3. Kelly, David & LeRoy, Stephen F., 2001. "Liquidity and Liquidation," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt4fq7n6pj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  4. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03.
  5. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 255-69, June.
  6. Yukio Noguchi, 1994. "Land Prices and House Prices in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Housing Markets in the United States and Japan, pages 11-28 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1988. "Saving for housing purchase in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 351-384, September.
  8. John Krainer & Stephen F. LeRoy, 2002. "Equilibrium valuation of illiquid assets," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 223-242.
  9. Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong & Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 2004. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 95-123.
  10. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
  11. Jeremy C. Stein, 1993. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Downpayment Effects," NBER Working Papers 4373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Williams, Joseph T, 1995. "Pricing Real Assets with Costly Search," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 55-90.
  13. Owen Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Leverage and House-Price Dynamics in U.S. Cities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(3), pages 498-514, Autumn.
  14. Fumio Hayashi, 1989. "Is Japan's saving rate high?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-9.
  15. Hoshi, Takeo, 2001. "What Happened to Japanese Banks?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(1), pages 1-29, February.
  16. Kanemoto, Yoshitsugu, 1997. "The housing question in Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 613-641, November.
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