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Asset price declines and real estate market illiquidity: evidence from Japanese land values

Author

Listed:
  • John Krainer
  • Mark M. Spiegel
  • Nobuyoshi Yamori

Abstract

We develop an overlapping generations model of the real estate market in which search frictions and a debt overhang combine to generate price persistence and illiquidity. Illiquidity stems from heterogeneity in agent real estate valuations. The variance of agent valuations determines how quickly prices adjust following a shock to fundamentals. We examine the predictions of the model by studying price depreciation in Japanese land values subsequent to the 1990 stock market crash. Commercial land values fell much more quickly than residential land values. As we would posit that the variance of buyer valuations would be greater for residential real estate than for commercial real estate, this model matches the Japanese experience.

Suggested Citation

  • John Krainer & Mark M. Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2005. "Asset price declines and real estate market illiquidity: evidence from Japanese land values," Working Paper Series 2004-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2004-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, March.
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    13. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "Determinants of house prices in nine Asia-Pacific economies," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 340-370 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Determinants of house prices in nine Asia-Pacific economies," BIS Working Papers 263, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. An-Pin Wei & Wei-Ling Huang & Chih-Yuan Yang & Ming-Chi Chen, 2013. "The role of market imperfections in the relationship between housing prices and household credit: Evidence from Taiwan," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 27(2), pages 131-143, November.
    4. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Are Asia-Pacific Housing Prices Too High For Comfort?," Working Papers 2008-11, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    5. Jim Clayton & Greg MacKinnon & Liang Peng, 2008. "Time Variation of Liquidity in the Private Real Estate Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 125-160.

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    Keywords

    Real property ; Prices ; Japan;

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