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A response to Cogley and Sbordone's comment on “Closed-Form Estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time-Varying Trend Inflation”

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  • Fabia Gumbau-Brisa
  • Denny Lie
  • Giovanni P. Olivei

Abstract

In their 2010 comment (which we refer to as CS10), Cogley and Sbordone argue that: (1) our estimates are not entirely closed form, and hence are arbitrary; (2) we cannot guarantee that our estimates are valid, while their estimates (Cogley and Sbordone 2008, henceforth CS08) always are; and (3) the estimates in CS08, in terms of goodness of fit, are just as good as other, much different estimates in our paper. We show in this reply that the exact closed-form estimates are virtually the same as the \"quasi\" closed-form estimates. Our estimates are consistent with the implicit assumptions underlying the first-stage VAR used to form expectations, while the estimates in CS08 are not. As a result, the estimates in CS08 point towards model misspecification. We also rebut the goodness of fit comparisons in CS10, and provide a more credible exercise that illustrates that our estimates outperform CS08's estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabia Gumbau-Brisa & Denny Lie & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2011. "A response to Cogley and Sbordone's comment on “Closed-Form Estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time-Varying Trend Inflation”," Working Papers 11-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:11-4
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    1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    3. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    5. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1997. "Money in a real business cycle model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Nov, pages 568-623.
    6. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    7. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Denny Lie & Anirudh S. Yadav, 2017. "Time-Varying Trend Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 42-66, March.
    2. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    3. Gumbau-Brisa, Fabià & Lie, Denny, 2015. "Comments on &amp;amp;quot;Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve&amp;amp;quot;," Working Papers 2015-13, University of Sydney, School of Economics.

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    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Economic forecasting;

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