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Diversification and development

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  • Miklos Koren
  • Silvana Tenreyro

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between sectoral diversification and economic development. We develop a risk-based methodology to assess countries' extent of industrial diversification. The industrial structure of a country tends to be risky when the country i) has a high sectoral concentration, ii) specializes in highly risky sectors, and/or iii) specializes in sectors highly affected by country-specific fluctuations. We document the following regularities. First, sectoral concentration declines and then increases with development. Second, industry-specific risk declines with development. Hence, at early stages of development, the decline in concentration is accompanied by a parallel decrease in industry risk, whereas at higher levels of development sectoral concentration and industry risk move in opposite directions. Third, country-specific risk declines along the development path. Fourth, the covariance between industry and country risk increases with development. We also derive indicators of consumption risk that provide direct evidence on the welfare implications of risk. Finally, we compare the overall level of risk with that of the "optimal country portfolio."

Suggested Citation

  • Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Diversification and development," Working Papers 03-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:03-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Caselli & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "Is Poland the Next Spain?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 459-533 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kemeny, Thomas & Storper, Michael, 2012. "Specialization and regional economic development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58538, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Chami Ralph & Hakura Dalia S. & Montiel Peter J., 2012. "Do Worker Remittances Reduce Output Volatility in Developing Countries?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, June.
    4. Luca De Benedictis, 2006. "Openness, Specialization and Growth," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_054, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    5. Tobias Bidlingmaier, 2007. "International Trade and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    6. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sarah Jacobson & Ragan Petrie, 2014. "Favor trading in public good provision," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(3), pages 439-460, September.
    8. Luca De Benedictis & Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, 2006. "Overall Specialization and Income: Countries Diversity," Working Papers 37-2006, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Oct 2008.
    9. Dalia S Hakura & Ralph Chami & Peter J Montiel, 2009. "Remittances; An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 09/91, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

    Economic development ; Industries;

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