IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fem/femwpa/2022.04.html

Climate Change, Armed Conflicts and Resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Mariagrazia D'Angeli

    (Department of Economics, Society and Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy)

  • Giovanni Marin

    (Department of Economics, Society and Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy)

  • Elena Paglialunga

    (Department of Economics, Society and Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy)

Abstract

In recent years, there has been rapid development of the literature linking climate change and armed conflicts. Although no conclusionary evidence has been found of a direct link between climate change and armed conflicts, still climate change has been addressed as an important trigger, exacerbating underlying social, economic and institutional conditions and thus resulting in higher risk and magnitude of violent activities. In this context, while more research is needed to further disentangle how climatic changes combine with socio-economic and institutional elements to induce conflicts, an important pathway to be explored is the role that building resilience can play in preventing and/or breaking the negative relationship between climate change and violent activity. In this context, resilience refers to the capacity of a system to come back to its original conditions after a shock and relies on the combination of socioeconomic, institutional and technological dimensions. In our paper we provide empirical evidence on the role played by resilience-building investments in attenuating the emergence of armed conflicts as a consequence of climate-related anomalies and natural disasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariagrazia D'Angeli & Giovanni Marin & Elena Paglialunga, 2022. "Climate Change, Armed Conflicts and Resilience," Working Papers 2022.04, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2022.04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/NDL2022-004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin L. Kliesen, 1994. "The economics of natural disasters," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr, pages 5-9.
    2. Maryia Markhvida & Brian Walsh & Stephane Hallegatte & Jack Baker, 2020. "Quantification of disaster impacts through household well-being losses," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 538-547, July.
    3. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    5. Habyarimana, James & Humphreys, Macartan & Posner, Daniel N. & Weinstein, Jeremy M., 2007. "Why Does Ethnic Diversity Undermine Public Goods Provision?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 709-725, November.
    6. Akter, Sonia & Mallick, Bishawjit, 2013. "The poverty–vulnerability–resilience nexus: Evidence from Bangladesh," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 114-124.
    7. Vesco, Paola & Dasgupta, Shouro & De Cian, Enrica & Carraro, Carlo, 2020. "Natural resources and conflict: A meta-analysis of the empirical literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    8. Mariya Y. Omelicheva, 2011. "Natural Disasters: Triggers of Political Instability?," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 441-465, October.
    9. Daniel Sarewitz & Roger Pielke & Mojdeh Keykhah, 2003. "Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 805-810, August.
    10. Halvard Buhaug, 2015. "Climate–conflict research: some reflections on the way forward," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), pages 269-275, May.
    11. Simone Caschili & Aura Reggiani & Francesca Medda, 2015. "Resilience and Vulnerability of Spatial Economic Networks," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 205-210, June.
    12. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    13. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938, April.
    14. Lazzaroni, Sara & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014. "Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 333-346.
    15. Cederman, Lars-Erik & Weidmann, Nils B. & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2011. "Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 478-495, August.
    16. Joshua Eastin, 2016. "Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 322-349, March.
    17. Marin, Giovanni & Modica, Marco & Paleari, Susanna & Zoboli, Roberto, 2021. "Assessing disaster risk by integrating natural and socio-economic dimensions: A decision-support tool," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Drago Bergholt & Päivi Lujala, 2012. "Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 147-162, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Charles Norman & Lothar Schwinden & Paul Krusic & Andreas Rzepecki & Tatiana Bebchuk & Ulf Büntgen, 2025. "Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-17, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Plänitz Erik, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Political Disorder: Why Urban Flooding Turns Violent. Applying a Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(2), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Meierrieks, Daniel & Pañeda-Fernández, Irene, 2025. "Do climate change and climate disasters at home shape return migration intentions? Evidence from a survey of West Africans in Germany," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Migration, Integration, Transnationalization SP VI 2025-101r, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, revised 2025.
    3. Goyette, Jonathan & Smaoui, Maroua, 2022. "Low agricultural potential exacerbates the effect of temperature on civil conflicts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    4. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "The Economic Impact of Climate in the Long Run," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 1, pages 3-36, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Ruben Dahm & Karen Meijer & Ernst Kuneman & Louise Schaik, 2023. "What climate? The different meaning of climate indicators in violent conflict studies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(11), pages 1-23, November.
    6. David Castells-Quintana & Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe & Tom McDermott, 2015. "Climate change and the geographical and institutional drivers of economic development," GRI Working Papers 198, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    7. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    8. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. De Juan, Alexander & Pierskalla, Jan & Schwarz, Elisa, 2020. "Natural disasters, aid distribution, and social conflict – Micro-level evidence from the 2015 earthquake in Nepal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Dino Collalti, 2024. "The Economic Dynamics After a Flood: Evidence from Satellite Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(9), pages 2401-2428, September.
    11. Michael Brzoska, 2019. "Understanding the Disaster–Migration–Violent Conflict Nexus in a Warming World: The Importance of International Policy Interventions," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-17, May.
    12. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Victoire Girard, 2023. "Mineral Resources and the Salience of Ethnic Identities," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(653), pages 1705-1737.
    13. Damette, Olivier & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 295-323.
    14. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    15. Mérel, Pierre & Paroissien, Emmanuel & Gammans, Matthew, 2024. "Sufficient statistics for climate change counterfactuals," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    16. Lé Mathias, 2022. "The adaptation of economies to climate change: lessons from the economic research [L’adaptation des économies au changement climatique : les enseignements tirés de la recherche économique]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 239.
    17. Wenju Cai & Yi Liu & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang & David Newth, 2024. "Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    19. Otto Brøns-Petersen & Søren Havn Gjedsted, 2021. "Climate change and institutional change: what is the relative importance for economic performance?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 23(2), pages 333-360, April.
    20. Martin Henseler & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 417-433, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2022.04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alberto Prina Cerai The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Alberto Prina Cerai to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.