Exporting violence? Migration and violent conflict in Africa

Climate change and demographic pressures are reshaping Africa’s security landscape. Extreme weather shocks disrupt livelihoods and often induce people to move, while many states face persistent violent conflict. Migration represents a potential connection between these two challenges, yet isolating its causal effect on conflict remains difficult due to endogeneity and measurement concerns. In this paper, we examine whether net international migration increases the incidence of violent conflict in Africa and assess if there are heterogenous effects across regions within Africa. We compile panel data for 54 African countries from 1997 to 2024, measuring net migration as the difference between inflows and outflows, and conflict incidence using geocoded event data. To address endogeneity, we instrument migration with historical rainfall variability (from 1901 to 1950), which shaped long-run settlement and mobility patterns but predates modern political institutions. Using a control function IV Poisson model suitable for equi-dispersed count data, we find that migration significantly increases conflict incidence, with effects concentrated in countries and regions in Africa with weak governance and economic stress. These results highlight the need for anticipatory governance strategies which address both mobility and fragility in contexts vulnerable to climate change and demographic pressure.