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Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness: Political Economy Considerations

Author

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  • Joshua Aizenman

    (Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz)

  • Ilan Noy

    (Economics, University of Hawaii-Manoa)

Abstract

This paper studies the endogenous determination of financial and trade openness. First, we outline channels leading to two-way feedbacks between the different modes of openness; next, we identify these feedbacks empirically. We find that one standard deviation increase in commercial openness is associated with a 9.5 percent increase in de-facto financial openness (% of GDP), controlling for political economy and macroeconomic factors. Similarly, increase in de-facto financial openness has powerful effects on future trade openness. While de-jure restrictions on capital mobility do not impact de-facto financial openness, de-jure restrictions on the current account have large adverse effect on commercial openness, suggesting that it is much easier to overcome restrictions on capital account convertibility than restrictions on commercial trade. Having established (Granger) causality, we investigate the relative magnitudes of these directions of causality using the decomposition test developed in Geweke (1982). We find that almost all of the linear feedback between trade and financial openness can be accounted for by G-causality from financial openness to trade openness (53%) and from trade to financial openness (34%). The residual is due to simultaneous correlation between the two measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2004. "Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness: Political Economy Considerations," Economics Study Area Working Papers 72, East-West Center, Economics Study Area, revised Sep 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:ewc:wpaper:wp72
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Franco Ruzzenenti & Andreas Joseph & Elisa Ticci & Pietro Vozzella & Giampaolo Gabbi, 2015. "Interactions between Financial and Environmental Networks in OECD Countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-12, September.
    3. Braun, Matias, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and the Politics of Financial Development," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt70v7f9ff, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "FDI and trade--Two-way linkages?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 317-337, July.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2008. "Links between Trade and Finance: A Disaggregated Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 9-28, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
    7. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2019. "Trade Policy Space and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows," EconStor Preprints 196149, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    9. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "The collection efficiency of the Value Added Tax: Theory and international evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 391-410.
    10. Maria Kazakova & Alexandr Knobel & Ilya Sokolov, 2010. "Quality of VAT administration in OECD countries and Russia. Reform of the Russian system of tax collection," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 134P.
    11. Braun, Matias & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Trade liberalization, capital account liberalization and the real effects of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 730-761, September.
    12. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    13. Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye, 2014. "Foreign direct investment and liberalization policies in Pakistan: An empirical analysis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-12, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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