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EMU and the euro - the first 10 years. Challenges to the sustainability and price stability of the euro area - what does history tell us?

EMU and the euro will face a number of challenges in the future. Two such challenges are examined here:first, the endurance prospects for the euro, and second, the inflation performance of the euro area during the coming ten years. How will it respond to them? This report provides a set of tentative answers based on the history of monetary unions and of stabilization policies. This body of evidence is exploited as the prime basis for conjectures and forecasts presented.

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Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 165.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0165
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  1. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 2000. "A Return to the Convertibility Principle? Monetary And Fiscal Regimes in Historical Perspective," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 415, Stockholm School of Economics.
  2. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1999. "The Future of EMU: What Does the History of Monetary Unions Tell Us?," NBER Working Papers 7365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hugh Rockoff, 2000. "How Long Did It Take the United States to Become an Optimal Currency Area?," NBER Historical Working Papers 0124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. W.H. Buiter, 1999. "Alice in Euroland," CEP Discussion Papers dp0423, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  6. Prati, A. & Schinasi, G.J., 1999. "Financial Stability in European Economic and Monetary Union," Princeton Studies in International Economics 86, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  7. Forrest Capie, 1998. "Monetary Unions in Historical Perspective: What Future for the Euro in the International Financial System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 447-466, January.
  8. Flandreau, Marc & Le Cacheux, Jacques & Zumer, Frédéric, 1998. "Stability Without a Pact? Lessons from the European Gold Standard 1880-1914," CEPR Discussion Papers 1872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Fratianni, Michele & Spinelli, Franco, 2001. "Fiscal Dominance and Money Growth in Italy: The Long Record," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 252-272, April.
  10. Crouch, Colin (ed.), 2000. "After the Euro: Shaping Institutions for Governance in the Wake of European Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296393.
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