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EMU and the euro - the first 10 years. Challenges to the sustainability and price stability of the euro area - what does history tell us?

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  • Lars Jonung

Abstract

EMU and the euro will face a number of challenges in the future. Two such challenges are examined here:first, the endurance prospects for the euro, and second, the inflation performance of the euro area during the coming ten years. How will it respond to them? This report provides a set of tentative answers based on the history of monetary unions and of stabilization policies. This body of evidence is exploited as the prime basis for conjectures and forecasts presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Jonung, 2002. "EMU and the euro - the first 10 years. Challenges to the sustainability and price stability of the euro area - what does history tell us?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 165, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Willem H. Buiter, 1999. "Alice in Euroland," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 181-209, June.
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    7. Forrest Capie, 1998. "Monetary Unions in Historical Perspective: What Future for the Euro in the International Financial System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 447-466, January.
    8. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 2000. "A Return to the Convertibility Principle? Monetary And Fiscal Regimes in Historical Perspective," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 415, Stockholm School of Economics.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1999. "The Future of EMU: What Does the History of Monetary Unions Tell Us?," NBER Working Papers 7365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Fratianni, Michele & Spinelli, Franco, 2001. "Fiscal Dominance and Money Growth in Italy: The Long Record," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 252-272, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Josef Christl, 2006. "Regional Currency Arrangements: Insights from Europe," Working Papers 125, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    2. Larch, Martin & Van den Noord, Paul & Jonung, Lars, 2010. "The stability and growth pact: lessons from the great recession," MPRA Paper 27900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, July.
    4. Michael D. Bordo, 2004. "The United States as a Monetary Union and the Euro: A Historical Perspective," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 163-170, Spring/Su.
    5. Lars Jonung, 2006. "Comments on J. Christl: “Regional currency arrangements: insights from Europeâ€\x9D," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 221-224, December.
    6. Josef Christl, 2006. "Regional Currency Arrangements: Insights from Europe," Working Papers 42, Bank of Greece.

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