Global economic and financial crisis: India’s trade potential and future prospects
This paper estimates the trade potential for India using the augmented gravity model and then attempts to determine the importance of trade remedies. Based on panel data, this gravity model is the first-ever attempt to estimate India’s trade potential in the pre- and post- global economic and financial crisis period. The estimates of India’s global trade potential reveal that the magnitude of India’s trade potential is at its maximum in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by Africa and Latin America. Potential for expansion of trade in the post-crisis period is highest for countries such as China. However, in a large part of the world, India’s trade has remained unrealized, which provides further opportunities to expand despite the slowdown in global demand. There is a strong complementary role, as the findings of this paper indicate; i.e., tariff liberalization and trade facilitation, which taken together can help build export momentum in the crisis period.
|Date of creation:||May 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in ARTNeT website|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.unescap.org/tid/artnet/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John S. Wilson & Catherine L. Mann & Tsunehiro Otsuki, 2005. "Assessing the Benefits of Trade Facilitation: A Global Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(6), pages 841-871, 06.
- Yann Duval & Chorthip Utoktham, 2009.
"Behind the Border Trade Facilitation in Asia-Pacific: Cost of Trade, Credit Information, Contract Enforcement and Regulatory Coherence,"
6709, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
- Yann Duval & Chorthip Utoktham, 2009. "Behind-the-Border Trade Facilitation in Asia-Pacific: Cost of Trade, Credit Information, Contract Enforcement and Regulatory Coherence," Working Paper Series 209, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004.
NBER Working Papers
10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008.
"Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes,"
3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487, 05.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," NBER Working Papers 12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Djankov, Simeon & Freund, Caroline & Pham, Cong S., 2006.
"Trading on time,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3909, The World Bank.
- Egger, Peter, 2000.
"A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation,"
Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January.
- Peter Egger, . "A Note on the Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation," WIFO Working Papers 108, WIFO.
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
- Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
- James Harrigan, 2001.
"Specialization and the volume of trade: do the data obey the laws?,"
140, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- James Harrigan, 2001. "Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?," NBER Working Papers 8675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "Border Effect or Country Effect? Seattle May Not Be So Far from Vancouver After All," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 219-41, January.
- McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
- Hausman, Jerry A, 1978.
"Specification Tests in Econometrics,"
Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November.
- Rose, Andrew K, 1999.
"One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rose, Andrew, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," Seminar Papers 678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kaliappa Kalirajan & Swapan Bhattacharya, 2007. "Free Trade Arrangement Between India and Japan:An Exploratory Analysis," ASARC Working Papers 2007-09, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005.
"The log of gravity,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
3744, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Hoekman , Bernard & Nicita, Alessandro, 2008.
"Trade Policy, Trade Costs, and Developing Country Trade,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4797, The World Bank.
- Hoekman, Bernard & Nicita, Alessandro, 2011. "Trade Policy, Trade Costs, and Developing Country Trade," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2069-2079.
- repec:idb:brikps:13138 is not listed on IDEAS
- Spiros Bougheas & Panicos Demetriades & Edgar Morgenroth, 1996.
"Infrastructure, Transport Costs and Trade,"
Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001)
96/7, Department of Economics, Keele University.
- David S. Jacks & Christopher M. Meissner & Dennis Novy, 2008. "Trade Costs, 1870-2000," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 529-34, May.
- Nordås, Hildegunn Kyvik & Piermartini, Roberta, 2004. "Infrastructure and trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2004-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
- Helble, Matthias & Shepherd, Ben & Wilson, John S., 2007. "Transparency, trade costs, and regional integration in the Asia Pacific," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4401, The World Bank.
- Mauricio Mesquita Moreira & Christian Volpe Martincus & Juan S. Blyde, 2008. "Unclogging the Arteries: The Impact of Transport Costs on Latin American and Caribbean Trade," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 13138.
- Mia Mikic & John Gilbert, 2007. "Trade Statistics In Policymaking - A Handbook Of Commonly Used Trade Indices And Indicators," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number tipub2491, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esc:wpaper:6409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yann Duval)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.